* Q3 sales 6% above our ests. at SEK 260m, for 20% org. growth
* EBITA SEK 27m vs. ABGSCe 20m
* Trading at 9x-7x '27e-'28e EV/EBITA adj.
An unexpected, but welcome, double-digit margin
The Q3 report came in above our estimates for both sales and earnings, and the report was strong across the board. Careium delivered sales of SEK 260m (6% vs ABGSCe 245m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 20% (6.4pp vs ABGSCe 13.5%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 188m (7% vs ABGSCe 175m), and product sales was SEK 73m (4% vs ABGSCe 70m). Regionally, the Nordics grew 26% (service 27%, driven by Asker and Baerum in Norway), the UK & Ireland 15% (service 35%, product -6%), the Netherlands 33% (product sales SEK 5.7m vs 0.8m) and Other markets 22%. The gross margin increased to 45% (0.4pp vs ABGSCe 44.6%). The cost base was in line with expectations, with opex of SEK -90m (1% vs ABGSCe -89m), reminding us of the scalability in the business model. As such, adj. EBIT amounted to SEK 27m (33% vs ABGSCe 20m), for a margin of 10.3% (2.1pp vs ABGSCe 8.2%), vs. 8.8% Q3'25. FCF was SEK 14m, held back by a SEK 24m working capital build, mainly inventories and receivables. This was a touch lower than our estimates, but roughly in line with general Q3 expectations.
Mix and pricing do the work
With all four regions growing double digits and gross profit up in every one of them, the operating leverage we have been waiting for is showing up. The Nordic gross margin step-up suggests the upfront cost of the Norwegian onboarding has largely rolled off, in line with what management hinted at in Q2. Service sales grew 27% on connections up only 8% (344.5k), pointing to mix and pricing rather than volume alone. We also note that the margin is improving despite material R&D expenses, up ~60% YTD. We also note that the hybrid loan to Doro was settled in the quarter (SEK 35m repaid, SEK 29m written off to retained earnings, no P&L effect), which lifts net debt to SEK 191m (183m).
Consensus EBIT estimates likely up HSD
The share is up ~12% YTD, but is down ~10% since the Q2 report. On our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 9x-7x ‘27e-'28e EV/EBITA adj. The positive mechanical effect for consensus '26e-'28e EBIT should be within a high-single-digit range. We hope to get more details during the conference call at 10.30 CET. Link to the webcast here.