* Q1 sales 2% above our ests. at SEK 220m, for 11% org. growth * Adj. EBIT SEK 13m vs. ABGSCe 9m * Trading at 10x-7x '26e-'28e EV/EBITA adj.
A strong Q1 given ongoing headwinds
Q1 came in slightly above expectations on sales, and materially above expectations on earnings. Careium delivered sales of SEK 220m (2% vs ABGSCe 216m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 10.9% (0.8pp vs ABGSCe 10.1%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 164m (2% vs ABGSCe 160m), and product sales was SEK 56m (1% vs ABGSCe 55m). The gross margin decreased 1.3pp to 43.2% (0.7pp vs ABGSCe 42.5%). Opex came in at SEK -83m (0% vs ABGSCe -83m). EBIT amounted to SEK 13m (41% vs ABGSCe 9m), for a margin of 5.7% (1.6pp vs ABGSCe 4.1%), vs. 8% Q1'25. The Nordics were the strongest region at 16%, driven by both Sweden performing well and the Norway customer ramp-up (though the latter came with margin costs). The Netherlands grew 10.4% and Other Markets 13%. UK & Ireland was the weak spot, down 7%, though positive when adjusted for FX (we assess ~4% lccy growth). Keep in mind that Q1'25 benefited from a favourable timing of accruals in the UK. Careium flags this multiple times, and notes that the GM, EBIT and EBITDA all improved y-o-y adjusted for this.
Outlook and cash flow
FCF was soft in the quarter and came in at SEK -14m (vs. -4m Q1'25), driven by a working capital build. Careium notes that working capital is normalising to expected levels, implying Q1 seasonality. R&D spend is continuing to run well above prior year levels, which is compressing margins now but is positioned as an investment in the platform. While Careium does not provide guidance, it comments that the Norway customer onboarding costs and the product development/business integration initiatives are expected to continue pressuring margins in Q2 as well. Moreover, new service contracts in UK & Ireland will have full effect of SEK ~3m per quarter starting in April, implying a modest Q2 tailwind.
Valuation and conference call details
On our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 10x-7x ‘26-'28e EV/EBITA adj. The positive mechanical effect for consensus '26e-'28e EBIT should be within a mid-single-digit range. We hope to get more details on during the conference call at 8.30 CET. Link to the webcast here.