* Transaction activity picking up, while FX supports AUM
* Limited estimate revisions ahead of Q2
* 2027e-28e EV/EBIT of 3-4x with a strong balance sheet
Corporate Finance improves while FX offsets weaker AUM
Despite a relatively quiet quarter overall, we expect improving transaction activity for Corporate Finance; we forecast total net sales of SEK 373m (vs. SEK 296m in Q1) and a return to positive EBIT of SEK 26m. For Investment Management, we expect AUM to remain broadly stable at SEK 160.4bn, as modest net outflows and the delayed effect of underlying property valuations are largely offset by favourable FX movements from the stronger EUR/SEK. Overall, we expect a stable quarter with improving transaction activity and group EBITDA of SEK 46m, fully offsetting the loss reported in Q1.
2026e broadly unchanged
After only minor estimate revisions ahead of Q2, our 2026 earnings scenario remains broadly intact, with net sales down by -1.3%, while EBIT and EPS are up by 2.4% and 6.5%, respectively. We still expect the recovery will accelerate in H2 as (i) transaction activity gradually improves, (ii) underlying property valuations begin to catch up with market conditions, and (iii) variable fee generation recovers. With CEO Rikke Lykke's management team now largely in place, we also expect an increased focus on strategic execution during the second half of the year.
A recovery in earnings and strong balance sheet
Despite only modest estimate revisions, we continue to believe Catella offers an attractive combination of recovering earnings and a strong balance sheet. Applying our latest forecasts, the company is trading at 2027-28e EV/EBIT multiples of ~3-4x, while continued bond and share buybacks support capital efficiency. As transaction markets gradually recover and underlying property valuations catch up, we believe the company's earnings profile will improve beyond 2026.