* The journey has just begun
* Stronger sales to come, we estimate +39% y-o-y in Q2
* Trading 30% below peers on EV/EBITDA
And so the journey begins
Clavister is entering a new era in its history, and we find the journey very exciting. Costs as a share of sales are down. The product focus and the strategy have been sharpened. And the heavy debt? Repaid and refinanced. All cash is now going towards growing the company. We therefore estimate Q2 sales of SEK 76m, for growth of 39% y-o-y, and we expect Clavister to only accelerate from here. We do expect the company to continue being profitable from now on, but the main focus for us is growing the business and winning more deals within defence, energy and the public sector. The cash from the Norwegian deal will come in H2'26, and we expect FCF of ~SEK 40m for '26e (-10m in '25).
Costs come first, scaling comes next
We keep our sales estimates flat for '26e-'28e but cut EBITDA by 11-33% for the same period, as we think the main focus will be growing the business and the costs that come with it will be incurred. This is usual for a company of this size. Building a foundation and a brand name comes first, and then the scaling potential comes. We therefore now expect EBITDA margins of 28-30% (16% in '25) for '26e-'28e, and EBITDA to grow ~140% y-o-y in '26e.
The turnaround is done, the growth begins
Our estimates reflect the announced defence orders and a stabilisation of the civil market. On these, the company is trading at 22-12x EV/EBITDA for ’26e-’28e, which is 30% below its peers. But the potential does not stop there. There is also the potential deal regarding BAE Nordic Edition in defence, the shift to European vendors in the public sector, and the energy opening, none of which we have yet factored into our estimates (see pages 3-9).