* Defence order lifts Q1e sales to SEK 76m, +42% y-o-y * Entering the new year with stronger financial fundamentals * Expecting an average FCF yield 7% p.a. '26e-'28e
Strong quarter thanks to Norwegian order
This is the first quarter with the Norwegian order in place, a complete software implementation, resulting in our Q1 estimated sales of SEK 76m, or 42% y-o-y growth. While the defence order boosts the quarter, we think underlying growth will be held back by a soft civilian business. On top of this, we think ~SEK 10m in deliveries that were postponed from Q4'25 will largely land in Q1, although we expect these to carry a lower gross margin. With this, we estimate a Q1 gross margin of 77% and EBITDA of SEK 18m, for a 23% margin. Also worth noting is that we expect net financials to be much lower following the refinancing and removal of the EIB loan.
Some additional costs
Following a change of analyst, we slightly lower sales estimates for '26, but we increase sales and EBIT for '27e and '28e. The reason for our cut to EBIT for '26e is that we think the company will likely have some additional costs for the Norwegian order. We think this is natural given that the order we estimate as ~26% of group sales for this year. We have previously highlighted the scaling potential, and while this thesis remains intact, we believe growing and gaining market share is the more important priority for Clavister at this stage of its journey.
Exciting times ahead
Clavister has undergone exciting changes, refinancing its loan, winning a meaningful defence order and gaining market share in the civilian market. Looking ahead, the company now has much stronger finances for growing the business on entirely different terms, and with the growth intact, we estimate an avg. of ~7% FCF yield in our forecast period. The company is trading at EV/EBITDA of 17x/10x/7x for '26e/'27e/'28e, which is ~15% below peers.