* Pedalling in a structurally growing European bike-sharing market * +20% revenue CAGR in '25-'28e with strong margin expansion * Fair value range of DKK 7-10/share
Pedalling in high-growth European bike-sharing market
Donkey Republic ("DONKEY") is a Danish bike-sharing operator, with core markets including Nordics (33%), Benelux (39%) and DACH (22%). Its fleet of ~24k pedal bikes and e-bikes is supported by a propietary software stack, with monetisation across rider revenues (66%), B2G and B2B revenues (31%) and software/hardware (3%).
Competitive moats to drive market share gains
Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at +15% CAGR until '30e, with drivers including sustainability and health trends, seamless integration with public transportation systems and regulation. We believe several operational capabilities, such as the company's scalable operating model and data-driven approach, should be considered licences to operate rather than true moats, and we instead see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Coupled with proven tender execution capabilities, we expect DONKEY to grow its European market share by 0.4pp up to '28e, to 6.2%.
+20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10
Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. +35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 81m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 36m. Valuing DONKEY against shared mobility peers yields DKK 7.1-8.8/share, while our DCF points to DKK 10.2/share. We set a fair value range of DKK 7-10/share.