Q1 sales +40% y-o-y, +2% q-o-q, FCF negative Cut '25e-'27e sales by 7% on weaker Q2 outlook Market recovery and new products to support H2'25e
New products and distributors to support H2'25e
Energy Save reported Q1 sales of SEK 54m (+40% y-o-y, +2% q-o-q). EBIT was higher than expected at SEK -4m (vs. ABGSCe -7m) due to the company's newly implemented cost-cutting programme. We expect Q2 to be a weaker quarter (-31% q-o-q), due to inventory buildup among OEM customers, but we anticipate an upturn in H2'25e (est. ~40% y-o-y growth in H2'25e), driven by normalising inventory levels and a gradual market recovery. We expect higher volumes in H2'25e to drive EBIT growth, with positive margins and FCF anticipated in '26e. The company’s ~SEK 30m cash balance should provide sufficient support until then. Growth continues to be underpinned by the Aira partnership (we estimate revenues of ~SEK 200m for '25e). However, we expect both ES-branded sales and Commercial to gradually improve towards H2'25e with the help of the company's new product launches.