* Early signs of stabilisation, but numbers lag
* We lower '26e-'28e adj. EBIT by 3-5%
* 10x-9x '26e-'27e EV/adj. EBIT
Numbers will likely lag
We see early signs of stabilisation in demand, with Q2 order intake up 5.4% y-o-y and improving demand expectations in the KPIs from the National Institute of Economic Research (Swe: Konjunkturinstitutet). However, we believe that this will not be reflected in the numbers immediately. As such, we expect a soft Q3, with sales down 13% y-o-y. We expect the gross margin to hold steady at ~4.1%, supported by add-on services and long framework agreements. The KPIs show that demand is picking up, but we think pricing pressure remains, as consulting firms likely cannot raise prices by more than the salary increases for FTEs. We therefore expect adj. EBIT of SEK 19m, for a margin of 0.7% (1.1% in Q3'25).
Lower estimates on low visibility
The market remains uncertain and the pace of recovery into '27 is the key question. With visibility remaining low, we slightly lower our sales estimates by 1-2%, and adj. EBIT by 3%/6%/5%, for ‘26e/'27e/‘28e. We expect sales growth of 5% in '27e (-12% in '26e), supported by the extended Tetra Pak agreement, under which Ework becomes sole MSP for interim consultants at Tetra Pak. On top of that, we also expect the cost savings to take full effect in '27e, lifting adj. EBIT to SEK 118m, for a margin of 0.9%, up 5bp from '26e.
10x-9x '26e-'27e EV/adj. EBIT
The share is trading at 10x-9x ‘26e-‘27e EV/adj. EBIT (vs. peers at 11x-9x) compared with its 10Y average of 13x. The market remains subdued, and visibility into the timing and trajectory of the recovery is still somewhat blurry. We continue to expect earnings to pick up once demand returns, but anticipate subdued growth in the near term.