Fastpartner: Steep cut to run-rate IFPM - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* NOI 2% y-o-y, 2.4% vs ABGSCe, 1.5% vs cons.
* Value changes of -0.47% vs ABGSCe of 0.13%
* Hard to call estimate revisions, share to underperform
Rec. PTP 1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y
Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rental income of SEK 571m (0.2% vs ABGSCe, -0.1% vs cons.), with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y) driving NOI of SEK 393m (2.4% vs ABGSCe, 1.5% vs cons.), rec. PTP of SEK 206m (1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y), adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y). The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), occupancy adj. for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Dividend proposal of SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), 4.5% vs ABGSCe at SEK 1.10, -4.2% vs cons at SEK 1.20, 4.5% y-o-y.
adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y.)
Realised and unrealised value changes amounted to SEK -160m or -0.47%, we expected SEK 43m or 0.13%, and the average valuation yield amounted to 5.10%, -0.1pp q-o-q. Net LTV (ABGSC definition) amounted to 48.1% (47.4%), 0.8pp q-o-q, vs ABGSCe at 47.6%. The average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60%.
Conclusion
Guidance for IFPM NTM of SEK 790m, vs SEK 860m in Q3'25, compared to our estimate NTM of SEK 862m, i.e. guidance is down 8.1% q-o-q. The current run-rate IFPM amounts to SEK 790m, and FPAR targets to grow this figure to SEK 1.2bn by YE28, which implies a ~15% CAGR. SOJ says that there are small signs of demand improvements, but geopolitical uncertainty delay actions. In addition, office supply is too high in relation to demand in the top 4 cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, Uppsala). Hard to call estimates on the large negative revision of the run-rate IFPM. Share could easily underperform the sector by ~3-5%.
* Value changes of -0.47% vs ABGSCe of 0.13%
* Hard to call estimate revisions, share to underperform
Rec. PTP 1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y
Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rental income of SEK 571m (0.2% vs ABGSCe, -0.1% vs cons.), with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y) driving NOI of SEK 393m (2.4% vs ABGSCe, 1.5% vs cons.), rec. PTP of SEK 206m (1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y), adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y). The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), occupancy adj. for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Dividend proposal of SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), 4.5% vs ABGSCe at SEK 1.10, -4.2% vs cons at SEK 1.20, 4.5% y-o-y.
adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y.)
Realised and unrealised value changes amounted to SEK -160m or -0.47%, we expected SEK 43m or 0.13%, and the average valuation yield amounted to 5.10%, -0.1pp q-o-q. Net LTV (ABGSC definition) amounted to 48.1% (47.4%), 0.8pp q-o-q, vs ABGSCe at 47.6%. The average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60%.
Conclusion
Guidance for IFPM NTM of SEK 790m, vs SEK 860m in Q3'25, compared to our estimate NTM of SEK 862m, i.e. guidance is down 8.1% q-o-q. The current run-rate IFPM amounts to SEK 790m, and FPAR targets to grow this figure to SEK 1.2bn by YE28, which implies a ~15% CAGR. SOJ says that there are small signs of demand improvements, but geopolitical uncertainty delay actions. In addition, office supply is too high in relation to demand in the top 4 cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, Uppsala). Hard to call estimates on the large negative revision of the run-rate IFPM. Share could easily underperform the sector by ~3-5%.