Generic: The gross margin story remains strong - ABG
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* Sales up 3% y-o-y, held back by soft volumes and tough comps
* We keep sales flat, and slightly raise opex
* Trading at 9-8x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, below its historical median
Recruiting and consulting costs weighing on EBIT
Generic reported an in-line Q4, with sales of SEK 49m, up 3% y-o-y, affected by softer volumes and tough comps. The gross margin came in at 44%, up from last year, indicating that SaaS continues to grow. Adj. EBIT decreased 4% y-o-y, primarily due to recruiting and consulting costs. It is also worth noting that Q4'24 was exceptionally strong. Looking at the full year, Generic grew adj. EBIT by 22% y-o-y. The DPS was proposed at SEK 1.75 (1.60 last year), and we note it has increased over the last 5 years, signalling earnings stability.
We raise opex by ~3%, but keep our view on scaling potential
We expect more top-line growth in 2026, as volumes should pick up, and as Generic continues to penetrate more customer groups. We raise operating costs slightly for '26e-'27e but keep our view of it reaching 22-23% EBIT margins, as we see potential for further scaling.
Volumes should pick up in 2026
Generic is currently trading at 9-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below its historical median. The messaging market has been impacted by pricing sensitivity, as customers in, e.g., logistics, have cut costs. However, churn remains low, and we believe volumes should pick up in 2026. DOCS continues to grow within municipalities, and Generic is starting to reposition the product as a document transfer product. This targets other customer segments, such as private healthcare companies and Swedish regions, and over time, this should scale and increase margins.
* We keep sales flat, and slightly raise opex
* Trading at 9-8x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, below its historical median
Recruiting and consulting costs weighing on EBIT
Generic reported an in-line Q4, with sales of SEK 49m, up 3% y-o-y, affected by softer volumes and tough comps. The gross margin came in at 44%, up from last year, indicating that SaaS continues to grow. Adj. EBIT decreased 4% y-o-y, primarily due to recruiting and consulting costs. It is also worth noting that Q4'24 was exceptionally strong. Looking at the full year, Generic grew adj. EBIT by 22% y-o-y. The DPS was proposed at SEK 1.75 (1.60 last year), and we note it has increased over the last 5 years, signalling earnings stability.
We raise opex by ~3%, but keep our view on scaling potential
We expect more top-line growth in 2026, as volumes should pick up, and as Generic continues to penetrate more customer groups. We raise operating costs slightly for '26e-'27e but keep our view of it reaching 22-23% EBIT margins, as we see potential for further scaling.
Volumes should pick up in 2026
Generic is currently trading at 9-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below its historical median. The messaging market has been impacted by pricing sensitivity, as customers in, e.g., logistics, have cut costs. However, churn remains low, and we believe volumes should pick up in 2026. DOCS continues to grow within municipalities, and Generic is starting to reposition the product as a document transfer product. This targets other customer segments, such as private healthcare companies and Swedish regions, and over time, this should scale and increase margins.