Gentoo Media: Time for cash generation - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
Q1e: top line and adj. EBITDA +14% and 9% y-o-y
'25e-'27e sales down 3%, limited adj. EBITDA revisions
Trading well below peers on 4.4x '25e EV/EBITDA
Q1e: sales and adj. EBITDA growth of 14-9% y-o-y
We forecast Q1 sales of EUR 31.8m, up 14% y-o-y. This is a 7% decline on Q4'24 (note that Q4 sales were restated) and mainly driven by lower CPA revenue, which appeared elevated in Q4, while revenue-share sales should remain largely stable (up 4% q-o-q in Q1'25e). Note that after many years of consecutive sequential growth, the CEO highlighted in the Q4 conference call that he did not expect Q1 to be another record quarter. We model a 46% margin for Q1, which is 2pp below Q1'24 following a higher run-rate cost base from Q4 and lower sales growth. However, it implies a ~6pp improvement from Q4, which we believe had temporarily elevated expenses, especially on marketing. In total, we estimate 9% adj. EBITDA growth y-o-y, which results in >100% EPS growth, albeit from a low base.
'25e-'27e sales down 3%, limited adj. EBITDA revisions
Trading well below peers on 4.4x '25e EV/EBITDA
Q1e: sales and adj. EBITDA growth of 14-9% y-o-y
We forecast Q1 sales of EUR 31.8m, up 14% y-o-y. This is a 7% decline on Q4'24 (note that Q4 sales were restated) and mainly driven by lower CPA revenue, which appeared elevated in Q4, while revenue-share sales should remain largely stable (up 4% q-o-q in Q1'25e). Note that after many years of consecutive sequential growth, the CEO highlighted in the Q4 conference call that he did not expect Q1 to be another record quarter. We model a 46% margin for Q1, which is 2pp below Q1'24 following a higher run-rate cost base from Q4 and lower sales growth. However, it implies a ~6pp improvement from Q4, which we believe had temporarily elevated expenses, especially on marketing. In total, we estimate 9% adj. EBITDA growth y-o-y, which results in >100% EPS growth, albeit from a low base.