Green Landscaping Group: Feeling the weight of the North - ABG
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Q3 report on Thursday, 23 October at 12:00 CET* '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 9-7%; 4% CAGR in '24-'27e10-7x EBITA in '25e-'27e, 11-19%FCF yields
No help from the Norwegian market
We expect a weak third quarter in Norway and Sweden, partly offset by Rest of Europe. In Norway, we expect the market to remain tough, with high competition. Meanwhile, in Sweden, the divestment of units has reduced sales, but it should mean higher margins. In Q3, Green announced the second acquisition of the year. However, it has to pick up the pace to reach its target of SEK 80-100m in acquired EBITA per year. However, we think the M&A story is still intact. With ND/EBITDA at 2.7x, cash flow of 40-80% of EBITA, and higher earnings supporting the guidance of SEK 80-100m in acquired EBITA per year, we could see an increase of 10-40% to '26e-'27e EBITA. For Q3, we estimate announced M&A will add 6% to sales and with -1% from FX and -2.5% organic growth, we estimate sales of SEK 1,574m, +2.3% y-o-y. We forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 140m, +2% y-o-y, for a margin of 8.9%, flat y-o-y.
Estimate changes
We lower '25e-'27e EBITA by 9-7% on the tougher market in Norway and units not performing in Sweden. Our estimates are also held back by FX. We now forecast -6% '25 adj. EBITA growth, rising to 14-6% in '26e-'27e (4% '24-'27e CAGR) as margins improve from 8.6% in '24 to 9.0% in '27e.
Glitch in the curve but M&A story continues
We believe GLG should be in a good position to grow organically over time given its exposure to stable markets and high exposure to public customers (~70%). This should also be supported by M&A and an improving margin (currently at ~8% vs. ~5% in '17-'20). In addition, GLG acts in local markets that — together with the large share of public funding — should leave it fairly insulated from tariff uncertainty. For '24-'27e, we expect GLG to deliver growth, ROCE and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 10-7x EBITA (12x L5Y) with 11-19% FCF yields.
No help from the Norwegian market
We expect a weak third quarter in Norway and Sweden, partly offset by Rest of Europe. In Norway, we expect the market to remain tough, with high competition. Meanwhile, in Sweden, the divestment of units has reduced sales, but it should mean higher margins. In Q3, Green announced the second acquisition of the year. However, it has to pick up the pace to reach its target of SEK 80-100m in acquired EBITA per year. However, we think the M&A story is still intact. With ND/EBITDA at 2.7x, cash flow of 40-80% of EBITA, and higher earnings supporting the guidance of SEK 80-100m in acquired EBITA per year, we could see an increase of 10-40% to '26e-'27e EBITA. For Q3, we estimate announced M&A will add 6% to sales and with -1% from FX and -2.5% organic growth, we estimate sales of SEK 1,574m, +2.3% y-o-y. We forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 140m, +2% y-o-y, for a margin of 8.9%, flat y-o-y.
Estimate changes
We lower '25e-'27e EBITA by 9-7% on the tougher market in Norway and units not performing in Sweden. Our estimates are also held back by FX. We now forecast -6% '25 adj. EBITA growth, rising to 14-6% in '26e-'27e (4% '24-'27e CAGR) as margins improve from 8.6% in '24 to 9.0% in '27e.
Glitch in the curve but M&A story continues
We believe GLG should be in a good position to grow organically over time given its exposure to stable markets and high exposure to public customers (~70%). This should also be supported by M&A and an improving margin (currently at ~8% vs. ~5% in '17-'20). In addition, GLG acts in local markets that — together with the large share of public funding — should leave it fairly insulated from tariff uncertainty. For '24-'27e, we expect GLG to deliver growth, ROCE and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 10-7x EBITA (12x L5Y) with 11-19% FCF yields.