I-tech: Another growth breather in Q1e - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* Q1e sales 42m (57m), adj. EBIT SEK 9.8m (18m)
* Updated FX forecasts, we raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5%
* Trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 8x-3x
Q1 expectations
We estimate sales of SEK 42m (57m), -27% y-o-y (-15%% org., -12% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps into Q1, as the quarter was particularly strong last year (sales +49% y-o-y), as the Q1'25 result also included volumes from a large customer that has since reported financial constraints. On EBIT, we forecast SEK 9.8m (18m) for a margin of 24% (31%).
Estimate changes
We raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5% on our updated FX forecasts, but lift personnel costs to reflect the recent hiring tied to the company's business development initiatives. This results in '26e-'28e adj. EBIT adjustments of +2-4%.
Remain positive on long-term case
Despite near-term organic headwinds, we think I-Tech is continuing to gain market share. Customer diversification is progressing well, with PPG (+126%), Kansai (+109%), and Jotun (+108%) all delivering triple-digit volume growth in FY'25, albeit from low bases. CMP volumes grew +21% in '25, and we expect a similar pace in '26e. We also see potential for normalisation in the financially constrained customer noted above. China, which is now ~26% of sales, remains a key growth market given its dominance in newbuild and drydocking, where new Selektope products are gaining traction. The stock is trading at 8x-3x EV/EBIT on '26e-'28e and 12x-7x P/E, i.e. ~50% below peers.
* Updated FX forecasts, we raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5%
* Trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 8x-3x
Q1 expectations
We estimate sales of SEK 42m (57m), -27% y-o-y (-15%% org., -12% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps into Q1, as the quarter was particularly strong last year (sales +49% y-o-y), as the Q1'25 result also included volumes from a large customer that has since reported financial constraints. On EBIT, we forecast SEK 9.8m (18m) for a margin of 24% (31%).
Estimate changes
We raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5% on our updated FX forecasts, but lift personnel costs to reflect the recent hiring tied to the company's business development initiatives. This results in '26e-'28e adj. EBIT adjustments of +2-4%.
Remain positive on long-term case
Despite near-term organic headwinds, we think I-Tech is continuing to gain market share. Customer diversification is progressing well, with PPG (+126%), Kansai (+109%), and Jotun (+108%) all delivering triple-digit volume growth in FY'25, albeit from low bases. CMP volumes grew +21% in '25, and we expect a similar pace in '26e. We also see potential for normalisation in the financially constrained customer noted above. China, which is now ~26% of sales, remains a key growth market given its dominance in newbuild and drydocking, where new Selektope products are gaining traction. The stock is trading at 8x-3x EV/EBIT on '26e-'28e and 12x-7x P/E, i.e. ~50% below peers.