I-tech: No easy lap into Q4e - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* Q4e sales SEK 45m (58m), adj. EBIT SEK 10m (19m)
* We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively
* Lowered growth assumptions for CMP
Tough comps in Q4e
We estimate Q4 sales of SEK 45m, -23% y-o-y (-12% organic, -11% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps in the quarter, as Q4'24 was a particularly strong quarter for the company (sales +129% y-o-y). We foresee slightly higher costs in the quarter due to year-end bonuses and on adj. EBIT we estimate SEK 9m (19m) for a margin of 21% (32%).
We lower our '26e-'27e growth assumptions
We lower '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively. While we continue to expect I-Tech to increase its market share driven by growth among its existing customers, we now assume that the impact of a key customer’s reduced planned volumes (due to financial constraints) will be more prolonged than previously anticipated. Furthermore, we adopt a more cautious growth assumption for CMP in '26e-'27e compared to the strong growth seen in '24 (+20%) given the uncertainty of the timing of additional CMP product launches. We now forecast a '25e-'27e sales growth CAGR of 14% (vs. previously +20%). Moreover, we have updated our FX forecasts, which indicate an FX headwind of -9% in '26e (previously -5%).
Remain positive on long-term prospects
In November '25, the company announced that the European Commission had drafted a proposal for the non-renewal of Selektope. We believe it is likely that the draft will be approved, but we remain positive on the company's long-term outlook given its small exposure to the EU market (~3% of sales). That said, there is always a risk that a ban could have a negative impact on I-Tech's attempts to enter other markets, such as the US (although this is a small market), or on re-application processes in regions where it has already achieved approval (most importantly Japan, South Korea, China). The company is trading at 9x-6x EV/EBIT on '26e-'27e, and 14x-10x P/E, i.e. ~50-70% below the peer median.
* We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively
* Lowered growth assumptions for CMP
Tough comps in Q4e
We estimate Q4 sales of SEK 45m, -23% y-o-y (-12% organic, -11% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps in the quarter, as Q4'24 was a particularly strong quarter for the company (sales +129% y-o-y). We foresee slightly higher costs in the quarter due to year-end bonuses and on adj. EBIT we estimate SEK 9m (19m) for a margin of 21% (32%).
We lower our '26e-'27e growth assumptions
We lower '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively. While we continue to expect I-Tech to increase its market share driven by growth among its existing customers, we now assume that the impact of a key customer’s reduced planned volumes (due to financial constraints) will be more prolonged than previously anticipated. Furthermore, we adopt a more cautious growth assumption for CMP in '26e-'27e compared to the strong growth seen in '24 (+20%) given the uncertainty of the timing of additional CMP product launches. We now forecast a '25e-'27e sales growth CAGR of 14% (vs. previously +20%). Moreover, we have updated our FX forecasts, which indicate an FX headwind of -9% in '26e (previously -5%).
Remain positive on long-term prospects
In November '25, the company announced that the European Commission had drafted a proposal for the non-renewal of Selektope. We believe it is likely that the draft will be approved, but we remain positive on the company's long-term outlook given its small exposure to the EU market (~3% of sales). That said, there is always a risk that a ban could have a negative impact on I-Tech's attempts to enter other markets, such as the US (although this is a small market), or on re-application processes in regions where it has already achieved approval (most importantly Japan, South Korea, China). The company is trading at 9x-6x EV/EBIT on '26e-'27e, and 14x-10x P/E, i.e. ~50-70% below the peer median.