* Q2e: +58% organic growth, EBIT SEK 13m (5m)
* Easy comps: customer with financial constraints not in Q2'25 base
* Trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT 11x-5x, ~40-60% below peers
Q2 expectations
We estimate Q2 sales of SEK 48m, +53% y-o-y (+58% organic, -5% FX). Whereas Q1 faced tough comps, Q2 marks the start of an easier comparison period. This is because the financial constraints at I-Tech's second-largest customer began in Q2'25, meaning that we assume that last year's quarter carried essentially no volumes from this customer. With order patterns having normalised in Q1'26, we expect this to be a meaningful growth driver from Q2 onwards. Moreover, the FX headwind should also begin to ease as we lap last year's SEK appreciation (-14% FX effect in Q1). On EBIT, we forecast SEK 13m (5m) for a margin of 27% (15%), with the gross margin trend (record 60% in Q1) supporting profitability.
Estimate changes and outlook
We raise '26e-'28e sales and EBIT by 3% ahead of the report. Looking ahead, we will be listening for commentary on the company's business development initiatives. I-Tech has been hiring in this area and, with SEK 157m in cash at the end of Q1, it has the balance sheet to act.
Remain positive long-term
Our long-term view on I-Tech is unchanged. Selektope is currently used on around 3,500 of the ~110,000 commercial vessels in the global commercial fleet, leaving plenty of room to grow in both new-build and drydocking. The drydocking market is roughly 10x the size of new-build and represents the larger long-term opportunity, with China a key geography where maintenance-market penetration remains low relative to its fleet size and drydocking activity. The share is trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 11x-5x and 16x-9x P/E, i.e. ~40-60% below peers.