Medicover: Expect to see new targets - ABG
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* Q4'25 numbers due on 10 February at 07:45 CET
* Expect new targets on the reporting day, more info on 11 Feb
* Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300)
Q4'25 expectations
The end of 2025 should be characterised by a similar trend to Q3 for Medicover, with continued growth and further margin improvement, albeit at a more moderate pace. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 11.4% in Q4, supported by continued strong performance in the Polish ambulatory and sport/wellness businesses, while improving utilisation across the network should remain supportive. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 12.7%, as we believe Medicover should continue to navigate the German pricing reform effectively. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 616m, driven by 11% organic growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 95m, corresponding to a margin of 15.4%.
Minor estimate changes and new targets
Ahead of the Q4 results, we take a slightly more cautious stance on the sales outlook for the end of '25e and for '26e-'27e, but we believe continued margin expansions will protect earnings, and we take down adj. EBITDA by 1% for '26e-'27e. As Q4 marks the end of the current medium-term targets (2023-25), we expect Medicover to present new ones in conjunction with the report, with more information expected at the investor update on 11 February. On p.3-4, we take a look at previous targets and expect Medicover to guide for sales above EUR 3.3bn and adj. EBITDA above EUR 550m by the end of the new period 2026-28, while reiterating its leverage and dividend target.
Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300)
On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we lower our fair value range to SEK 200-280 (220-300). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 10x-12x.
* Expect new targets on the reporting day, more info on 11 Feb
* Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300)
Q4'25 expectations
The end of 2025 should be characterised by a similar trend to Q3 for Medicover, with continued growth and further margin improvement, albeit at a more moderate pace. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 11.4% in Q4, supported by continued strong performance in the Polish ambulatory and sport/wellness businesses, while improving utilisation across the network should remain supportive. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 12.7%, as we believe Medicover should continue to navigate the German pricing reform effectively. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 616m, driven by 11% organic growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 95m, corresponding to a margin of 15.4%.
Minor estimate changes and new targets
Ahead of the Q4 results, we take a slightly more cautious stance on the sales outlook for the end of '25e and for '26e-'27e, but we believe continued margin expansions will protect earnings, and we take down adj. EBITDA by 1% for '26e-'27e. As Q4 marks the end of the current medium-term targets (2023-25), we expect Medicover to present new ones in conjunction with the report, with more information expected at the investor update on 11 February. On p.3-4, we take a look at previous targets and expect Medicover to guide for sales above EUR 3.3bn and adj. EBITDA above EUR 550m by the end of the new period 2026-28, while reiterating its leverage and dividend target.
Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300)
On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we lower our fair value range to SEK 200-280 (220-300). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 10x-12x.