* -1%/0% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q2
* Cons estimates likely unchanged
* Trading at 10.2x '26e EV/EBITDA
Q2 results: In line with expectations
Medicover reported a second quarter in line with cons. Q2 sales were EUR 640m (0% vs ABGSCe, 0% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +12% (ABGSCe +10%). Adj. EBITDA was 109m (-1% vs. ABGSCe, 0% vs. cons), for a margin of 17.1% (ABGSCe 17.3%, cons 17.1%), up 20bps y-o-y. Total NRI in Q2 was EUR -2m (ABGSCe EUR -4m, cons EUR -4m). Healthcare Services had a slightly softer quarter, with organic growth decelerating to 12.2% from 15.6% a year earlier and the EBITDA margin slipping to 18.4% from 18.6%, as continued strength in India, which grew 23.1% (~40% LCCY), and Polish sports/wellness was offset by weaker hospitals in Poland and clinics in Romania. Diagnostic Services performed better, with organic growth of 10.9% and the EBITDA margin improving to 18.8% from 17.7%, supported by double digit FFS growth across key markets and a favourable shift toward more advanced testing. Overall, a solid report with strong organic growth, though margin expansion was smaller than in Q1 as HS offset gains in DS.
Outlook: Softer in Romania
Management reiterated the 2026-2028 targets (revenue >EUR 3.25bn, adj. organic EBITDA >EUR 600m, leverage ≤3.0x) and says it is "in line with plan" six months in. Leverage was 2.9x, flat vs Q1 and down from 3.1x at FY25, inside targets. India remains the growth engine (~40% in LCCY), with the two newest hospitals ramping and new specialised centres plus a 100-bed women's/children's hospital added. A negative is Romania. Medicover highlights post-coalition-collapse political instability, 10.7% inflation and a weaker labour market that are pressuring membership and FFS. Otherwise the outlook commentary is strategic; there is no new numerical H2 guidance.
Conclusion: trading at 10.2x EV/EBITDA '26e
Based on the Q2 deviation, we find little reason for cons. to move estimates at all. The stock has been up ~8% L3M and is trading at 10.2x-8.7x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e. Conference call at 09.30 CEST today. Link for audiocast here.