* 8%/6% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q1 * Cons estimates likely up 1-3% on adj. EBITDA '26e * Model proved itself despite the weather headwind we flagged
Q1 results
Medicover reported a strong start to '26 with sales in-line vs cons and a clear beat on adj. EBITDA vs cons (8%/6% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons). Q1 sales came in at EUR 624m (3% vs ABGSCe, 0% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +10% (ABGSCe +7%). Adj. EBITDA was 105m (8% vs. ABGSCe, 6% vs. cons), for a margin of 16.8% (ABGSCe 16.0%, cons 15.9%), up 110bps y-o-y. Total NRI in Q1 was EUR -3m (ABGSCe EUR -4m, cons EUR -4m). HS delivers a strong result, with organic growth of 12% driven by Polish sports/wellness and supported by the Indian and Romanian hospitals, lifting the EBITDA margin to 17.2% (15.6% Q1'25). The company highlights that India shows strong double-digit growth, with local currency revenue up 34%, supported by a new hospital opening in Hyderabad during the quarter. DS looks solid, with organic growth of 7% and an EBITDA margin of 20.8% (19.7% Q1'25), supported by continued German FFS momentum and the SYNLAB acquisition, despite weather headwinds in key markets. Overall, a strong report with margin expansion across both segments, demonstrating that the model continues to prove itself despite the weather drag we flagged ahead of Q1.
Outlook and estimate changes
Management does not provide a specific outlook for 2026. Going forward, the company highlights confidence in continuing the trends of organic growth, margin expansion and good operating cash flow as it works towards its mid-term targets, supported by improving capacity utilisation, pricing and cost management. Based on the Q1 deviation, consensus FY'26 estimates are likely to be revised up by 1-3% on adj. EBITDA.
Share view
The stock has been down 4% into the report, and we expect it to trade up 3-5% today given the beat and strength in India.