Midsona: A step in the right direction - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* '25e-'27e adj. EBITA up 12-5%* Encouraging efficiency improvements and strategic initiatives* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~8x
A solid quarter despite sales headwinds
The Q3 report was stronger than we had expected on all key line items, as sales and adj. EBIT were 2% and 53%, respectively, above our expectations. The organic growth (-0.4%) was held back by the ongoing change in the distribution model and distribution agreement terminations, as well as from the fire in the Spanish factory. Adj. EBIT benefitted from a favourable product mix and improved overall cost efficiency. Moreover, the fire resulted in an impairment of tangible assets of SEK -44m, which lowered the earnings including NRI's.
Adj. EBITA up 12-5%
We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 12-5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We continue to believe that organic growth will be hurt by the ongoing turnaround and a lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we assess that market conditions could improve in H2'26. Moreover, we trim our opex base for '26e-'27e on lower admin costs due to the new restructuring programme; however, our initial estimates already included increased efficiencies in the opex base. We also expect the implementation costs to be spread over Q4'25 and Q1'26, but tilted more towards Q4, and as such we include a total of SEK -8m in NRIs and increase admin costs across the two quarters, as we are unsure how much of the expected SEK -15m will be included in opex and/or NRIs.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.
A solid quarter despite sales headwinds
The Q3 report was stronger than we had expected on all key line items, as sales and adj. EBIT were 2% and 53%, respectively, above our expectations. The organic growth (-0.4%) was held back by the ongoing change in the distribution model and distribution agreement terminations, as well as from the fire in the Spanish factory. Adj. EBIT benefitted from a favourable product mix and improved overall cost efficiency. Moreover, the fire resulted in an impairment of tangible assets of SEK -44m, which lowered the earnings including NRI's.
Adj. EBITA up 12-5%
We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 12-5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We continue to believe that organic growth will be hurt by the ongoing turnaround and a lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we assess that market conditions could improve in H2'26. Moreover, we trim our opex base for '26e-'27e on lower admin costs due to the new restructuring programme; however, our initial estimates already included increased efficiencies in the opex base. We also expect the implementation costs to be spread over Q4'25 and Q1'26, but tilted more towards Q4, and as such we include a total of SEK -8m in NRIs and increase admin costs across the two quarters, as we are unsure how much of the expected SEK -15m will be included in opex and/or NRIs.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.