Midsona: Brighter days ahead - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* Underlying performance indicative of a brighter '26e
* '26e-'27e adj. EBITA up 5%
* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 8x
Solid underlying performance boosted by NRIs
Q4 came in above expectations on all key items, but was especially strong on adj. EBIT (29% above our estimate) despite a modest beat of 2% on sales. The majority of the EBIT beat stemmed from NRI's of SEK -6m as opex was in line with expectations and the GM was a tad higher (0.5pp) than anticipated. The organic growth (0.7%) was driven by consumer brands (6%), but offset by B2B sales (-13%) and licenced brands (-15%). The health food category has been affected by a change to centralised distribution (previously direct) for one brand, which is now finished. Moreover, sales were continuously affected by the termination of distribution agreements and the fire in Spain.
Positive estimate revisions on efficiency improvements
We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We believe that organic growth in '26e can accelerate as comps will be lighter following the phasing out of unprofitable contracts and lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we have yet to see any material improvements in the market and therefore keep our '26e-'27e organic growth assumptions cautious at ~3% p.a. We slightly lower our opex assumptions as the costs to achieve the restructuring programme have been revised down to SEK >10m. Our 5% '27e EBIT margin is below the targeted 8%, implying that management sees additional margin upside. We see additional, value-accretive capital allocation opportunities as the company's leverage ratio continues to come down.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~10% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.
* '26e-'27e adj. EBITA up 5%
* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 8x
Solid underlying performance boosted by NRIs
Q4 came in above expectations on all key items, but was especially strong on adj. EBIT (29% above our estimate) despite a modest beat of 2% on sales. The majority of the EBIT beat stemmed from NRI's of SEK -6m as opex was in line with expectations and the GM was a tad higher (0.5pp) than anticipated. The organic growth (0.7%) was driven by consumer brands (6%), but offset by B2B sales (-13%) and licenced brands (-15%). The health food category has been affected by a change to centralised distribution (previously direct) for one brand, which is now finished. Moreover, sales were continuously affected by the termination of distribution agreements and the fire in Spain.
Positive estimate revisions on efficiency improvements
We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We believe that organic growth in '26e can accelerate as comps will be lighter following the phasing out of unprofitable contracts and lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we have yet to see any material improvements in the market and therefore keep our '26e-'27e organic growth assumptions cautious at ~3% p.a. We slightly lower our opex assumptions as the costs to achieve the restructuring programme have been revised down to SEK >10m. Our 5% '27e EBIT margin is below the targeted 8%, implying that management sees additional margin upside. We see additional, value-accretive capital allocation opportunities as the company's leverage ratio continues to come down.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~10% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.