Nilörn: A few bumps in the Q4 road - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* Negative FX and calendar effects
* We trim '25e-'27e EBIT by 2%
* Trading at 9x NTM EV/EBIT
FX and Chinese New Year weigh on Q4e
In Q4'25 we expect positive organic growth of 3%, which implies sales of SEK 214m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 17m, corresponding to a margin of 7.7%. We expect the gross margin to continue its recent strong trajectory at 46.4%. We keep in mind that Nilörn is affected by a calendar effect depending on when the Chinese New Year occurs. In 2026, the holiday begins in late February, compared to late January in 2025. An early Chinese New Year typically results in customers placing orders in Q4, and the timing in '26 implies tough comps for Nilörn in Q4'25e, as we expect customers to place orders in Q1'26 rather than Q4. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 220m-240m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-15% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m.
Minor annual EBIT cuts
We have cut our '25e-'27e sales and EBIT by 0-1% and 2%, respectively. The changes to '26e-'27e sales primarily follow updated FX movements. While an FX drag on sales typically leads to a positive impact on gross margins, we slightly increase our opex base on negative scale due to the Chinese New Year. Although we only increase opex by SEK 0.4m, we cut Q4e adj. EBIT by 8%.
Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at 9.2x NTM EV/EBIT. We also note that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is slightly below the corresponding five-year median of 9.4x. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects of the investments in Bangladesh and the efforts in Sri Lanka, and expect the EBIT margin target of >10% to be achieved by '27e.
* We trim '25e-'27e EBIT by 2%
* Trading at 9x NTM EV/EBIT
FX and Chinese New Year weigh on Q4e
In Q4'25 we expect positive organic growth of 3%, which implies sales of SEK 214m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 17m, corresponding to a margin of 7.7%. We expect the gross margin to continue its recent strong trajectory at 46.4%. We keep in mind that Nilörn is affected by a calendar effect depending on when the Chinese New Year occurs. In 2026, the holiday begins in late February, compared to late January in 2025. An early Chinese New Year typically results in customers placing orders in Q4, and the timing in '26 implies tough comps for Nilörn in Q4'25e, as we expect customers to place orders in Q1'26 rather than Q4. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 220m-240m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-15% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m.
Minor annual EBIT cuts
We have cut our '25e-'27e sales and EBIT by 0-1% and 2%, respectively. The changes to '26e-'27e sales primarily follow updated FX movements. While an FX drag on sales typically leads to a positive impact on gross margins, we slightly increase our opex base on negative scale due to the Chinese New Year. Although we only increase opex by SEK 0.4m, we cut Q4e adj. EBIT by 8%.
Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at 9.2x NTM EV/EBIT. We also note that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is slightly below the corresponding five-year median of 9.4x. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects of the investments in Bangladesh and the efforts in Sri Lanka, and expect the EBIT margin target of >10% to be achieved by '27e.