* Big deviations in a seasonally smaller quarter
* Strong orders de-risks '26e in our view
* Estimates should be fairly unchanged
Q1 results
Sales were a bit weaker in a seasonally weak Q1, 12% below ABGSC and 14% below FactSet consensus with -6% organic growth y-o-y. But more importantly, orders in Civil Engineering were strong, with order intake +24% y-o-y and order backlog +28% y-o-y, supporting solid growth in the seasonally stronger Q2-Q4. EBIT of EUR 1.5m saw big deviations (16% vs ABGSCe 1.3m and -31% vs cons 2.2m), but Q1 constitute a small part of full-year earnings (<5%). Net profit was EUR 1.1m (44% vs ABGSCe 0.8m and 12% vs cons 1.0m). FCF remained solid at EUR 5m in Q1 and 38m LTM (120% EBIT conversion).
Preliminary estimate changes
Management said market conditions remains favourable, illustrated by the company's strong order book, but also in ongoing Phase 1 projects that could drive even stronger orders if NYAB wins the Phase 2's. Management has indicated before that tenders for two major projects should be completed before the summer (Norrbotten power line and Uppsala tram), but no update on the timelines were provided in the report. We do not expect consensus to extrapolate deviations from the Q1 into '26e-'28e estimates. Instead, we expect estimates to remain fairly unchanged, while the strong order book de-risks 2026e a bit in our view.
Final thought
The share has been flat both L1M and YTD and lagged OMXSGI which is +7% in both periods. We think the key trigger will be how the company executes on the strong order book in 2026 while increasing margins in Sweden again. The upcoming major tenders in Uppsala and Norrbotten are also key factors.