OssDsign: FX drag masks solid growth - ABG
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* 27% y-o-y organic sales growth in Q4'25e
* No change to financial targets expected
Q4'25 results due 3 February
Q4'25 expectations
We believe OssDsign will continue to deliver solid sales growth for Catalyst in the US and pencil in 27% organic growth. With Q3 impacted by a larger order pulled forward into Q2, negatively impacting the q-o-q comparison, we expect Q4 to show a clearer picture of underlying demand and improved q-o-q performance. We continue to expect management to prioritise a sales ramp-up, driving higher costs related to the build-out of the US sales force, which should have a short-term negative impact on EBIT as opex increases. Nonetheless, we view this as encouraging, as broader commercial coverage should support continued hospital additions and further expansion of the surgeon base using Catalyst, which we expect the new CEO to accelerate even further going forward. In total, we forecast sales of SEK 47.3m and EBIT of SEK 5.5m, with a gross margin of 95.5%.
Estimate changes
Ahead of Q4, we fine-tune our operational assumptions and update FX, leading us to lower EBIT by SEK 2.0-4.7m for ’25e-’27e, equal to -8.5% to -43.9%. We forecast 46% organic sales growth in FY’25e, somewhat below our previous estimate of 47%, while leaving our organic sales growth assumptions of 30% unchanged for FY’26e-’27e.
Fair value range down to SEK 9-14 (10-17)
We revise our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 9-14 (10-17) ahead of the Q4 results. Our fair value range is derived from a DCF model, applying a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%. While near-term earnings remain impacted by FX and continued commercial investments, we see meaningful long-term potential, supported by sustained US adoption of Catalyst, high gross margins, and increasing operating leverage as the sales base scales.
* No change to financial targets expected
Q4'25 results due 3 February
Q4'25 expectations
We believe OssDsign will continue to deliver solid sales growth for Catalyst in the US and pencil in 27% organic growth. With Q3 impacted by a larger order pulled forward into Q2, negatively impacting the q-o-q comparison, we expect Q4 to show a clearer picture of underlying demand and improved q-o-q performance. We continue to expect management to prioritise a sales ramp-up, driving higher costs related to the build-out of the US sales force, which should have a short-term negative impact on EBIT as opex increases. Nonetheless, we view this as encouraging, as broader commercial coverage should support continued hospital additions and further expansion of the surgeon base using Catalyst, which we expect the new CEO to accelerate even further going forward. In total, we forecast sales of SEK 47.3m and EBIT of SEK 5.5m, with a gross margin of 95.5%.
Estimate changes
Ahead of Q4, we fine-tune our operational assumptions and update FX, leading us to lower EBIT by SEK 2.0-4.7m for ’25e-’27e, equal to -8.5% to -43.9%. We forecast 46% organic sales growth in FY’25e, somewhat below our previous estimate of 47%, while leaving our organic sales growth assumptions of 30% unchanged for FY’26e-’27e.
Fair value range down to SEK 9-14 (10-17)
We revise our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 9-14 (10-17) ahead of the Q4 results. Our fair value range is derived from a DCF model, applying a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%. While near-term earnings remain impacted by FX and continued commercial investments, we see meaningful long-term potential, supported by sustained US adoption of Catalyst, high gross margins, and increasing operating leverage as the sales base scales.