* Sequentially flattish, but -15% organic drop in sales in Q2e
* We assume a recovery in sales growth in H2'26e
* Q2'26 results due 18 August
Q2'26 expectations
We expect sales development to have stabilised in Q2, at a similar level to Q1'26, but lower compared with Q2'25, after recent changes in the US sales organisation and negotiation of certain key accounts that caused sales to drop in Q1. For Q2, we are forecasting sales of SEK 38m, equal to USD 4m,which is a similar level in terms of USD to Q1'26, and equal to a 15% organic decline (in USD) compared with Q2'25. We have assumed a small sequential increase in opex in Q2, resulting in EBIT for Q2 of SEK -13.3m with a gross margin of 95%. In terms of cash flow generation, we do not expect to see any major changes compared with the most recent quarters. We forecast OCF of SEK -16m, and for OssDsign to have a cash position of SEK 149m at the end of Q2.
Estimate changes
We raise our sales forecast by 2.6%-3.9% for '26e-28e to reflect updated FX assumptions but leave our EBIT forecast largely unchanged as we assume the high level of USD-based opex to offset the uplift in sales. We continue to expect to see gradually improving sales momentum in H2'26.
Fair value range tweaked to SEK 4.0-6.3 (4.0-6.2)
On the back of our updated forecast, our DCF-based fair value range is marginally tweaked up to SEK 4.0-6.3 (4.0-6.2) ahead of the Q2 results. While near-term sales and earnings momentum remain soft, impacted by a lack of sales channel expansion and turnover of certain sales reps, we continue to see meaningful long-term potential, supported by improved adoption of Catalyst in the US, high gross margins, and increasing operating leverage as the sales base scales. However, we expect the share price performance to remain muted until the company shows clear signs of improvements in the ramp-up of sales after three quarters of relatively flat sales before the disappointing decline in Q1.