* Sales -5% vs ABG, adj. EBITA +23% on lower opex
* West and Central continue to struggle, UK positive driver
* Raised DPS shows financial strength, estimates and share +1-4%
Q4 details
Sales SEK 1,208m (-5% vs ABG 1,275m, no cons). Adj. EBITA 85m (23% vs ABG 69m), Adj. EBITA margin 7.0% (ABG 5.4%). Organic growth -5% (vs ABG 3%), of which system sales -6% (ABG 4%) and services -3% (ABG 1%). Adj. EBITA +6% y-o-y (ABG -14%). DPS SEK 2.60 (53% vs ABG 1.70) and up 8% y-o-y shows financial strength.
Cost savings ahead of expectations
Weak sales development at the end of the year driven by low system sales and continued weak Dutch and German markets, while UK stands out positively. Earnings beat driven by cost actions (opex -20% vs ABG). OCF at SEK 229m (207m Q4’24) is good. Cautiously optimistic outlook, with continued margin focus ahead supported by estimated cost savings of SEK 80m in 2026.
Small revisions and positive reaction warranted
We expect consensus to make relatively small estimate revisions on 2026 (1-3%) and share likely to outperform the market today by 2-4% on the earnings beat.