Miss on Q3 sales (-12%) and EBITDA (-10%) vs ABGSCe China faced headwinds due to macroeconomic factors EBITDA revised down by 2-3% for '24e-'26e
Encouraging B2C sales efforts in the Nordics
Probi reported a soft Q3'24 with sales amounting to SEK 143.7m (-12% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 162.4m). The gross margin increased to 34.2% (vs. ABGSCe at 33.2%) as a result of strong cost control throughout the business. Looking at the Americas, Probi highlights the weak overall demand for probiotics in the US, and sales amounted to SEK 106.3m (-8% y-o-y, -11% vs. ABGSCe). APAC continues to be sluggish, particularly in China, which has been negatively impacted by macroeconomic factors and high inventory levels. In Q3, APAC sales were SEK 10.1m (-22% y-o-y, -22% vs. ABGSCe). EMEA was flat y-o-y with sales of SEK 27.3m (-10% vs. ABGSCe), with B2B sales developing positively. Probi has introduced new branding for B2C in the Nordics, which resulted in some out phasing in Q3. However, management emphasises that this has been well-received and efforts will continue in Q4.