* Merchant-first platform in a fragmented Nordic market
* Loan book growth transforms volumes into recurring earnings
* Fair value range of SEK 15-35
Merchant-led growth supports long-term TPV expansion
Qliro operates a merchant-first Nordic checkout platform combining Pay Now and Pay Later products within a single offering. The company benefits from structural growth in Nordic e-commerce, increasing merchant onboarding and growing Pay Later adoption. We forecast total payment volume (TPV) to increase from SEK 17.9bn in 2025 to SEK 43.2bn in 2028e, driven by continued merchant additions and increasing penetration within existing customers. Qliro’s estimated market share is currently only ~4%, indicating significant room for continued expansion.
Recurring lending revenues drive earnings inflection
Qliro’s business model benefits from a structural lag between transaction growth and earnings generation. As Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) volumes increase, the loan book expands, supporting higher recurring lending revenues over time. We forecast net interest income to increase from SEK 353m in 2025 to SEK 568m in 2028e, while operating profit improves from SEK -103m to SEK 116m, supported by operating leverage, loan book growth and improving credit quality.
Fair value range of SEK 15-35 highlights execution potential
We value Qliro using a Gordon growth framework complemented by peer analysis. Given the company’s current growth phase, valuation outcomes remain highly sensitive to assumptions regarding TPV growth, BNPL penetration, operating leverage and credit performance. Across our scenarios, the implied valuation range spans SEK 15–35 per share, which we use as our fair value range. Based on our forecast, Qliro is trading at 7.7x P/E 2028e.