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Kolmannen osapuolen analyysi

Stenhus Fastigheter: Outperforming on earnings growth - ABG

Stenhus Fastigheter i Norden

Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja

Lataa raportti (PDF)
* Net acquistions in H2'25* Buy-backs supportive for the share* 2025e P/CEPS 11x vs. coverage average of 17xSlightly higher costs weigh on Q2 resultsStenhus delivered Q2 results with rental income of SEK 251m, in line with our forecast, while the NOI margin of 77.3% was down 0.7pp q-o-q and 0.9pp below our forecast, resulting in NOI 2% below our estimate. Slightly higher central administration costs and net financials resulted in rec. PTP of SEK 96m, below our forecast. Occupancy was down 0.4pp q-o-q to 92.4%, while net letting was positive by SEK 2.6m (SEK 1.2m in Q1). The IFPM in the NTM earnings capacity grew by 0.5pp q-o-q to SEK 404m; we are 2% ahead for the coming 12 months. We make limited negative underlying estimate revisions, while the assumed share buy-backs (SBBs) support CEPS and EPRA NRV estimates.Acquistions and buy-backs on the cardsNet LTV amounted to 52.5% as of Q2, relative to the long-term financial target of <55%. As such, management is confident that they will be a net buyer in H2'25, and expect activity on the transaction market in the coming quarters. In Q3'25, the company will acquire a portfolio of light industrial properties for SEK 299m, with Bilia as the principal tenant, and where we have the impression that the NIY is around 6.5%. The company aims to have a mixed capital allocation between acquisitions and SBBs, with the share trading at a 35% discount to reported EPRA NRV, this implies a NIY of ~7% at the current share price. YTD, SBBs amount to 2.3% of outstanding shares, and we have included SEK 30m per quarter throughout 2026, suggesting another ~4.4% of outstanding shares.2025e P/CEPS 11x vs coverage average of 17xThe share is trading at a 2025e P/CEPS of 11x vs. the average in our coverage of 17x, and P/EPRA NRV of 0.63x compared to the average in our coverage at 0.90x. Moreover, we expect the company to deliver average cash earnings growth of 20% in '25e-'26e vs. the sector at 13%.
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