Svedbergs Group: Project market showing recovery - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
* First signs of Swedish project market recovery
* Could add ~15% of '25e EBITA N3Y
* Ready for M&A, Q4'26e ND/EBITDA 0.3x
Better across all regions
As was the case in Q3, Svedbergs Group improved on all fronts in Q4. All companies reported organic growth (6-18%), with a larger acceleration seen in Sweden. While parts of this development can be explained by the fact that the Swedish ROT deduction extension ended 31 December, commentary during the conference call pointed to a recovery in the project market, which showed low-single-digit growth y-o-y after consistent declines since 2022. Adjusting Roper Rhodes' result for a previous accounting effect related to shipping cost provisions, all companies improved margins y-o-y as well. Again, Swedish exposure proved beneficial; EBITA derived in Sweden more than doubled. On a group level, EBITA grew 7% y-o-y (or closer to 20%, adjusting for the accounting effect in shipping).
Balance sheet allows further expansion
Q4 was the second consecutive quarter in which Svedbergs Group exceeded its 15% EBITA margin target in LTM terms. The company states that this is now to be regarded a floor, and has not raised its targets. The reason given is that this would exclude potential attractive M&A targets from consideration. On this topic, Svedbergs Group's ND/EBITDA ex. IFRS-16 is 0.3x by Q4'26e. It furthermore hinted at a potential cash release from the pending sale of a Roper Rhodes warehouse, which could provide additional M&A firepower.
Trading at 12x '26e EBITA
Svedbergs Group is currently trading at 12x our '26e EBITA or 16x our '26e P/E. This can be compared to its L5Y multiples of 9x and 11x NTM, respectively, or a Nordic peer group P/E around 14x. We note that M&A has resulted in a materially larger company, which allows for larger institutional interest as well as lower risk due to a more geographically diverse business.
* Could add ~15% of '25e EBITA N3Y
* Ready for M&A, Q4'26e ND/EBITDA 0.3x
Better across all regions
As was the case in Q3, Svedbergs Group improved on all fronts in Q4. All companies reported organic growth (6-18%), with a larger acceleration seen in Sweden. While parts of this development can be explained by the fact that the Swedish ROT deduction extension ended 31 December, commentary during the conference call pointed to a recovery in the project market, which showed low-single-digit growth y-o-y after consistent declines since 2022. Adjusting Roper Rhodes' result for a previous accounting effect related to shipping cost provisions, all companies improved margins y-o-y as well. Again, Swedish exposure proved beneficial; EBITA derived in Sweden more than doubled. On a group level, EBITA grew 7% y-o-y (or closer to 20%, adjusting for the accounting effect in shipping).
Balance sheet allows further expansion
Q4 was the second consecutive quarter in which Svedbergs Group exceeded its 15% EBITA margin target in LTM terms. The company states that this is now to be regarded a floor, and has not raised its targets. The reason given is that this would exclude potential attractive M&A targets from consideration. On this topic, Svedbergs Group's ND/EBITDA ex. IFRS-16 is 0.3x by Q4'26e. It furthermore hinted at a potential cash release from the pending sale of a Roper Rhodes warehouse, which could provide additional M&A firepower.
Trading at 12x '26e EBITA
Svedbergs Group is currently trading at 12x our '26e EBITA or 16x our '26e P/E. This can be compared to its L5Y multiples of 9x and 11x NTM, respectively, or a Nordic peer group P/E around 14x. We note that M&A has resulted in a materially larger company, which allows for larger institutional interest as well as lower risk due to a more geographically diverse business.