* UK RM&I forecast cut to -8% in 2026
* We include UBC in our model, '27e EBITA +8%
* We raise our fair value range to SEK 57-77 (55-75)
Deceleration on tougher comps, Q2e EBITA +1% y-o-y
We expect Svedbergs Group to decelerate in Q2: comparable growth figures are harder to meet and UK data (Roper Rhodes makes up 52% of 2025 net sales) looks soft. We forecast organic growth of 1%. We include UBC from June, which adds another 4% to sales in Q2. We expect the Q1 gross margin to have been stronger than should be extrapolated, with higher shipping rates and fuel surcharges weighing in Q2, in addition to a negative mix effect from UBC, but we still expect a 1pp higher GM y-o-y. We expect logistics-related difficulties in the UK segment to continue from Q1, for a 1pp EBITA margin contraction in this segment y-o-y. Overall we forecast a 40bp EBITA margin contraction for the Group in Q2e, EBITA of SEK 84m (for a margin of 14.2%) is +1% y-o-y.
UBC inclusion lifts '27e EBITA by 8%
The inclusion of UBC in our model brings our '26e-'28e net sales and EBITA up by 7-14% and 4-10% respectively. The acquisition further diversifies Svedbergs Group's geographical exposure, as it adds presence in East Europe (from June Czech Republic will be ~8% of net sales). The acquisition is margin-dilutive initially, which means we cut our '27e EBITA margin by 80bp. In addition to the UBC inclusion, we are becoming even more cautious on UK organic growth seeing another forecast cut by CPA, this time of a larger magnitude than previously.
We raise our fair value range to SEK 57-77 (55-75)
Svedbergs Group is currently trading at 11.5-9.5x our '26e EBITA or 14-12x our '26e P/E. This compares to its L5Y average multiples of 9x and 11x NTM, respectively, or a Nordic peer group P/E median of 13x '26e (arguably, FM Mattsson is the closest peer at 17.6x). We raise our fair value range to SEK 57-77 (55-75) on our higher estimates, corresponding to 9-11x '27e EV/EBITA, 11-14x P/E.