* We add the recent equity raise to our numbers...
* ...and raise long-term copper price while delaying mine restart
* Feedback from ABGSC Small & Mid Cap Seminar
Adding equity raise to estimates
Since our latest update, Viscaria completed a directed share issue of ~SEK 1.7bn at SEK 16.60 per share, split in two tranches with the first booked in Q2, and the second pending for Q3. Moreover, the transaction included debt-to-equity conversion of outstanding shareholder loans, which take the total transaction size to ~SEK 2.4bn, for a dilution of 37.5%, which we now add to our numbers. Apart from existing shareholders, the directed share issue brought in InfraVia Capital Partners, a PE firm specialising in real assets. Combined with the pending debt financing package of up to SEK 4.8bn, this should leave Viscaria fully financed.
Copper price raised, and mine ramp-up delayed
Apart from the revisions above, which are related to the financing side, we make other changes to our operational assumptions. First, given big moves on metals & FX rates, we raise our long-term copper price assumption from USD 9,500/t to 11,000/t, while lowering our USD/SEK rate from 10.34 to 9.77, resulting in a +10% revision to the price in SEK. Second, we delay the mine restart to '28e, but keep our operational estimates at full run-rate production (from '29e) unchanged. At full run-rate, with our new inputs, we model annual revenue and EBITDA for the Viscaria mine of SEK 2.9bn and 2.0bn, respectively.
Feedback from Small & Mid Cap Seminar
Finally, we highlight that ABGSC hosted CEO Jörgen Olsson at our Small & Mid Cap Seminar on 17 September. Mr. Olsson noted that both construction and finalising of the debt financing are progressing according to plan. Moreover, he pointed to the current macro backdrop, which is highly supportive for Viscaria's economics. At spot prices and FX rates, Viscaria would generate a full run-rate EBITDA of SEK 2.8bn, by our estimation.