* Xplora has the tools to drive a good senior conversion rate * We forecast a ~30% EBITA CAGR from '25e to '28e... * ... leading EV/EBITA to drop from 17x in '25 to 6.5x in '28e
We slightly postpone the ramp-up of senior subscriptions... Q4 was another strong quarter, driven by strong device revenue and GM in the senior segment. The ARPU was disappointing, however, and we therefore cut ARPU by 8% for ‘27e-‘28e. We have also delayed the ramp-up of subscriptions in the senior segment, as Xplora has not yet announced that it has reached a meaningful number of subs (>10k). Hence, we lower our expectation for senior subscriptions at YE'26 from to 62k to 34k. Additionally, we extend the ramp-up period, and now expect it to reach a steady state conversion rate of 12% in Q4’27e (from Q1’27e, which was likely too optimistic) with a gradual ramp-up until then. This is, however, mostly offset by a higher conversion rate in the Kids segment. This lifts ‘26e EBITA by 17%, but lowers ‘28e by 4%.
... but still see good long-term potential
With ~1.2m senior phones sold annually, converting senior customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver. By the end of H1’26, Doro Connect will be live on its own webstores across all markets, followed by a retail rollout. We have looked at the LTV/CAC of product discounting and argue that as long as the GM is 60% or higher, the LTV/CAC of giving free feature phones in exchange for subscriptions is very attractive (see inside the report). We therefore argue that Xplora has the necessary tools to drive a high conversion rate in the senior segment. Keep in mind that we have assumed some CAC in our estimates which is directly expensed over the P&L, underestimating the underlying earnings. If we rather were to capitalise it and depreciate it over five years, '27e EBITA would increase by NOK 30m or 12%.
Fair value range of NOK 47-81/share
Xplora is now trading at 13.9x '26e EV/EBITA, which drops to 6.5x in '28e. Our DCF scenarios point to a fair value of NOK 47-81/share.