Inderes publishes its H1 report on 11 August.

Revenue was 2,6 MEUR in April and 1,9 MEUR in May, taking the first two months of the quarter to 4,5 MEUR against 4,0 MEUR a year ago. Growth came mainly from recurring revenue in research and software, with project timing giving some extra support in May. We now estimate June revenue at 1,1 MEUR, slightly below last year, and lower our Q2 revenue estimate to 5,6 MEUR from the 5,7 MEUR we set in our May comment. This implies around 7 % growth for Q2. Revenue from June was lifted last year by timing. Hence the comparison figure is elevated, and we do not assume this to be fully repeated. Part of May's strength this year also came from timing rather than demand, so a slightly softer June still leaves the quarter in good shape.

International revenue is the key thing to watch

International revenue reached 4,4 MEUR in 2025 and left room for improvement, but the first signs of a turn were already visible in Q1, when it grew 15 %. We expect that to continue in Q2, led by the software business, which is the easiest of the three units to grow. The cooperation with Euronext should help with international sales.

Events are where we are more cautious. We lowered our growth expectations for the international events business after the Q1 report, and we have not seen a reason to change that.

In research, the number of clients has kept growing in Finland, and if underlying macroeconomic environment stays favorable, we see room for further progress there.

Improvement expected in profitability

We estimate Q2 EBITA at 0,5 MEUR and an EBITA margin of 8,6 %, against 2,6 % a year ago. The gap is explained by last year's quarter including one-off restructuring costs, so the real improvement is smaller than the reported numbers suggest.

Guidance should hold

Inderes has said that growth and profitability will be stronger in the second half, and we expect the company to keep that guidance unchanged. If the quarter lands close to our estimates, the first half will have gone reasonably well, which in our view puts the company in a decent position to reach the stronger second half it is pointing to. The better flow of new listings in Finland supports that view.

We keep our estimates unchanged ahead of the report and will review them after the H1 release. We keep our buy recommendation with target price of 20 EUR.