On Thursday, August 8, Metacon announced that it has received an order for the supply of a 30 MW industrial electrolysis plant valued at 19.8 MEUR (~226 MSEK). We believe that this order reflects Metacon's competitive offering in large-scale electrolyzers and successful verification of the technology, as well as the start of the Company's previously announced European manufacturing footprint. Due to the significant size of this order, which on its own is in line with our full-year estimates for 2025, we will revise our estimates and review our recommendation and valuation no later than in connection with the upcoming Q2'24 report on August 22.

Strategy update starts to pay off

Over the past year, Metacon has shifted its focus to becoming a manufacturer and supplier of large industrial hydrogen systems. A key element of this strategy is the construction of a gigafactory in Europe to manufacture alkaline electrolyzers to EU standards under license from PERIC. The recently announced order of approximately 226 MSEK marks the first significant milestone in Metacon's updated strategy, both in terms of sales and the gradual establishment of its own manufacturing in Europe. In addition, the order includes adaptations to expand the plant by a further 20 MW in a second phase, which could potentially generate further revenues for Metacon.

According to the announcement, Metacon's manufacturing partner, PERIC, will supply electrolysis stacks and certain other components to Metacon's specifications. The electrolysis plant will be assembled at Metacon's facility in Patras, Greece, and the customer, Motor Oil, will perform the on-site installation in Corinth under the guidance and supervision of Metacon and PERIC.

Concrete step towards wide-scale commercialization of large industrial electrolysers

We believe that this order not only confirms the successful validation of Metacon's technology, but also underscores the effectiveness of Metacon's strategy of partnering with credible companies such as Siemens and PERIC. We believe these collaborations were a key factor in securing this order. With this large order now in hand, the establishment of strong partnerships, and the continued progress of the Gigafactory project, we believe Metacon is well positioned to achieve broader commercialization. However, it is important to note that securing a few large orders does not guarantee a consistent order pipeline, although it does increase the likelihood of a commercial breakthrough.

The press release did not specify the delivery schedule for the order but given the historical lead times and the size of the project, it seems reasonable to expect that Metacon will start to recognize revenue from this order from 2025. Including this order, and the three previously announced electrolyzer projects in Slovakia, Romania, and Poland, totaling around 289 MSEK, Metacon could reach approximately 515 MSEK in revenue for 2024 and 2025 combined. This clearly indicates that our current estimates of 347 MSEK for this period will need to be revised. However, it is important to note that visibility on future revenues from the previously announced projects is limited, both because the largest project is dependent on an EU grant and because it is unclear how much of these earlier projects have already been delivered. Nevertheless, we will revise our estimates and update our recommendation and valuation no later than in connection with the upcoming Q2'24 report on August 22.