Trianon

Residential rental uplift of ~5% for 2023 Focus on refurbishments limits value drop slightly 2023e NAV discount of ~25% vs sector average of ~20% NOI up by 5-6% for '23e-'24e while material cuts to CEPS Trianon posted Q4 NOI +2% vs ABGSCe. However, both...

Small estimate changes in ’22e-‘24e Solid demand for CSP and strong net leasing Refinancing secures liquidity and adds stability Valuation yield >4% once CSP tenants move in We note strong net leasing (SEK 7.2m), supporting management’s message of solid...

The Q3 results showed relatively minor deviations from our estimates and IFPM fell 2% y/y. Going forward, we expect increasing interest rates to render a continued negative trend in IFPM for both 2023 (-5%) and 2024 (-4%). Even though we foresee good...

NOI increased 10% y-o-y, 1% vs ABGSCe Income from property management -7% vs. ABGSCe Value gains of 0.4% vs. ABGSCe 0.4% IFPM in the earnings capacity -8% Total income amounted to SEK 182m (156m), 3% above our forecast of SEK 176m. Net operating income...

Estimate potential for an unprecedented rent increase Mostly hit by increased interest rate expectations Trading at ~16x and ~0.6x last reported IFPM and NAV Rental negotiations on everyone’s lips As mentioned in our note in July, the upcoming rental...

Interest rate sensitivity provided by TrianonYield of 3.9% is above H1’22 transaction market Potential tailwinds in coming tenant negotiationsEarnings capacity with interest rate sensitivity We hosted Trianon yesterday at ABGSC’s Investor Days, talking...

NOI trimmed by ~1-2% and CEPS by ~4% We note rental income estimate potentialTrading ~25% below 4-year P/IFPM average Consensus for residentials might be too lowHigher energy costs drive down the NOI margin by 1.0pp in ‘22e and 0.5pp in ’23 & ‘24e, respectivel...

Trianon reported a mixed set of numbers for Q2. On the negative side, IFPM fell 10% short of our estimates, burdened by higher energy and property costs. On the positive side, the average interest rate decreased by 15 bp to 1.75%, which we see as a favourable...

Net operating income -7% vs ABGSCeIFPM in the earnings capacity up by 6%Occupancy rate up 0.6pp q-o-q Income from property management -9% vs. ABGSCeRental income came in at SEK 171m (153m), compared to our forecast of SEK 173m. Net operating income was...

Value change potential from retail to CSP conversionUnsustainable yield spread prompts value declinesShare down ~50% YTD, trades well below hist. averageRecent new letting points to further value change potentialTrianon announced ~770 sqm of new leases...

We postpone timelines for some projectsMajor swap portfolio restructured – 40% secured to 202525x P/IFPM and 1.0x P/EPRA NRV in 2022eHigher project costs should be fended off We make minor revisions to rental income and -1.5% to -2.8% to net operating...

Trianon reported solid Q1 2022 numbers, with adjusted EPS growth of 42% y/y, EPRA NAV up 35% y/y, earnings capacity up 13% y/y and positive net letting of SEK 3.7m. We expect 11-13% NAV growth in 2022E-24E, mainly driven by its cash earnings yield and...

Net operating income -1% vs ABGSCe, -3% vs cons.+0.7% in value changes (ABGSCe +0.9%)Positive net leasing of SEK 3.7m (3.8m)Adj. for one-offs, IFPM was broadly in line with estimatesRental income came in at SEK 171m (151m), in line with our forecast ...

ESG activitiesTrianon’s sustainability agenda focuses on five areas, based on a selection of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals: 1) Affordable and clean energy; energy and heat efficiency in properties is an essential aspect of Trianon's sustainability...

We increase our indexation assumptions for ’23e and ’24e52bps increase to the average interest rate in ’22e-’24e~1.15x P/EPRA NRV and ~30x P/IFPM in ’23e NOI margin rebound in ’22e Due to increased market CPI expectations, we raise our indexation assumptions...

Growing project pipeline to start yielding in 2022Strong market supportive of more value changes 1.07x ’23e P/EPRA NRV for a 12% CAGR Solid support from projects even if acquisitions slow downQ4 net operating income came in lower (by -10%) due to a lower...

Trianon ended 2021 with several transactions and new projects – and we expect the high level of activity to continue in 2022. In Q4, income from property management (IFPM) fell 7% short of our estimate, mainly due to higher property costs related to ...

NOI and IFPM in earnings capacity up by ~5% and ~4%5.5% value changes and valuation yield 3.9% (4.2% Q3)186 renovated apartments in 2021 (132)Q4 NOI margin lower (63.5%) vs. ABGSCe (67.9%)Rental income came in at SEK 160m (148m) compared to our forecast...

64 units of renovated apartments in Q3Stated net initial yield fell 30bp q-o-q, to 4.1%Material project pipeline52% more renovated apartments in ’21 to drive org. growthAs of 1 September, Signatur Fastigheter is fully consolidated into Trianon’s balance...