Aiforia H1'25 preview: We expect a return to a stronger growth path

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/26/2025 at 7:30 am EEST.

Aiforia, the software company automating pathology with AI, will publish its H1 report on Thursday at around 9 am EEST. After a slower last year, we expect revenue growth to have strengthened, supported by ongoing deployments and new customer wins. Earnings and cash flow have again remained clearly in the red due to growth investments. In addition to these figures, we are particularly looking for an update in the report on the progress of clinical customer deployments and the expansion of software usage, as well as the development of the order book and sales pipeline. 

Clinical clients drive growth

We expect Aiforia's H2 revenue to increase by 47% year-on-year to 2.02 MEUR. The most important growth driver is, as usual, clinical customers. Based on public information, Aiforia has already secured some 11 significant clinical use customers, almost all of which have the potential for over 1 MEUR in annual revenue (some with >10 MEUR/customer). The speed of deployment, therefore, has a significant impact on the company’s near-term revenue. In addition, the revenue recognition from contracts has been back-end loaded, so even large forecasting errors cannot be ruled out. Compared to Aiforia's targets (~2030 revenue >100 MEUR), the reported figures will in any case still be very low. The order backlog has also continued on an upward trend with new customer wins (H2'24: 5.2 MEUR, H1’24: 3.2 MEUR), although this only covers a portion of the company's revenue growth outlook.

Profitability remains substantially in the red as the investment phase continues

We expect Aiforia’s H1’25 EBITDA to have improved slightly from the comparison period to -3.8 MEUR (H1’24: -4.2 MEUR) and EBIT to have remained at -6.1 MEUR. The result is negative as the company has made significant front-loaded investments in growth to implement its strategy, particularly in sales, implementations, and R&D recruitments. We estimate that the largest size leap is over in the organization and expect that the earnings trend will gradually turn to a rise with revenue growth. Strong growth is critical to the company's value creation, so as long as growth continues, we are not yet concerned about losses. However, we also focus on the development of net cash and investments in the report. The company raised an additional 8 MEUR in gross funding in spring 2025, and as commercial progress continues, we believe the company is well-positioned to raise further funding. If the growth we expect is successful, the company’s free cash flow will turn positive in 2029. 

Improving visibility to accelerating growth is at the heart of the investment story

In our view, Aiforia's investment story is very promising, and several clinical segment customers, especially those won in Europe, have already brought concrete results to the company's growth path. At the same time, due to the company's currently small commercial scale, visibility, especially regarding the strength of growth, remains limited. Before the H1 report, our revenue growth forecast for 2025 is 66% (2024: 19%), so after a slower 2024, we expect growth to accelerate throughout 2025. In addition to the reported growth figures, the report will focus on signs of the pace of future growth: the progress of clinical customer implementations and expansions, the development of the order book and sales pipeline, and the development of the cost structure. 

The company's valuation (2024e-2025e EV/S ~21-15x) still implies a strong confidence in growth, but given the company's track record and customer wins, we believe there are also clear reasons to believe it. A key risk remains a slower-than-expected growth trajectory, which also affects the company's financing needs.