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Incap's Q2 was operationally in line with the estimates that had been lowered after last week's profit warning. The report also did not indicate that the margin pressure mentioned in the company's profit warning would be a temporary factor, as its root cause is likely increased competition in India.
Sanoma's Q2 operating result, which remained at the comparison period's level, was below our estimate, which we believe was primarily due to timing factors in the learning business.
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We cut our Incap target price to EUR 9.00 (previously EUR 12.00) due to significant negative estimate revisions following the profit warning issued by the company on Friday and an increase in the required return. However, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for the share, as its valuation has been trampled to a very low level despite the estimate cuts. Incap will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, July 30.
The achieved turnaround in earnings is based, in our view, not only on the company's own successes but also on demand drivers in the energy and defense industries, which are likely to remain unchanged throughout the current decade.
Sanoma maintained its full-year 2026 guidance following a stable second quarter. The company enters the peak season for its Learning business from a strong position, making its execution during this period critical for the remainder of the year.