Flügger closed 2025/26 with revenue of MDKK 2,313 (+2% y/y), marginally above our MDKK 2,298 estimate, and EBIT of MDKK 108 (+15%), both within guidance. Reported EBIT met our forecast, though earnings quality was a touch softer, with EBITDA, PTP and EPS landing a few percent below as admin and ERP costs ran ahead of our modelling. Poland again led growth at +11% local currency for the full year, while the Nordic segment rose 2% as the planned private-label phase-out masked improving core demand from professional painters and consumers. The new 2026/27 guidance of MDKK 2,400-2,500 revenue and MDKK 105-125 EBIT lifts our revenue outlook but trims our EBIT trajectory, the main change to our estimates for 2026/27e. We reiterate our "Accumulate" recommendation, with the ongoing sanctions case remaining the key risk factor, and raise our target price to DKK 410 per share (prev. DKK 360).
We have not made any material changes to our forecasts, even though Spinnova appears to have advanced its strategy both in terms of assembling a cooperation consortium around the technology and verifying the reduction in the technology's production and investment costs.
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