Aiforia initiates change negotiation

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/31/2025 at 12:48 pm EET.

Aiforia announced on Friday that it will initiate change negotiations, through which it aims to achieve annual cost savings of approximately 2.5 MEUR starting from 2026. The company intends to ensure the achievement of its mid-term strategic goals through adjustment measures, which, in our view, means turning the business profitable by 2027.

Due to the slow ramp-up of Aiforia's customer accounts, the acceleration of its revenue growth has turned out to be slower than we and the company expected, creating pressure to review the cost structure. If implemented, the cost savings would initially boost our profitability estimates for the coming years but would slow down the company's development elsewhere. We will update our forecast and views once the outcome of the change negotiations is clear.

Adjustment measures support the company's path towards profitability 

Through the change negotiations, Aiforia aims to achieve ongoing annual cost savings of approximately 2.5 MEUR, which would be fully realized starting in the 2026 financial year. Personnel reductions are estimated to account for 0.65 MEUR of the savings, which would equate to the reduction of fewer than 10 people in Finnish operations (Headcount on June 30, 2025: 73). Most of the savings are therefore intended to be sought from areas other than personnel costs.

These adjustment measures are not entirely unexpected to us, as Aiforia's customer base ramp-up and corresponding revenue growth acceleration have been slower than we had previously anticipated. In our view, the company's previous cost structure was built around a scenario of faster market formation. Aiforia's strategy aims to achieve profitable business operations by 2027, and the company has stated its intention to ensure the achievement of its mid-term strategic goals. 

According to our estimates, Aiforia has already succeeded in developing a highly competitive product and winning several significant clinical segment customers in the market. The company now says it is moving into the next strategic phase of its development, where the focus shifts to stronger product commercialization. From this perspective, examining the cost structure is very timely.

As we understand it, Aiforia's commercial resources are largely located outside the Finnish organization that is involved in the change negotiations, so the impact on the commercialization, currently critical to the company's growth story, will be limited in the short term. At the same time, cost cuts will inevitably affect some areas, and if they target product development, it could be more difficult for the company to maintain its current strong competitive position in the future. However, Aiforia's product portfolio is already quite extensive for the European market, has expanded rapidly this year, and is performing very well commercially, so we believe the company has some room to reprioritize its investments.

We will update our estimates once the outcome of negotiations is clear

The targeted savings of 2.5 MEUR are significant in relation to our forecast of a 12.6 MEUR EBIT for Aiforia in 2026. Additionally, they suggest more widespread cost discipline, which could lead to slower cost growth than currently forecast. The savings will also reduce future financing needs (based on current forecasts, cash will be sufficient until approximately the beginning of Q2/2026), the management of which is important for the company's investment story. As negotiations are only just beginning and the final outcome and any one-off costs are not yet known, we will revise our estimates and view once the outcome of the negotiations is clear.