Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/22/2026 at 08:23 am EEST

Aiforia announced on Tuesday that its revenue for the beginning of the year has turned out clearly below the company's own and our expectations. The company estimates that January–June revenue will decrease significantly from the comparison period to around 0.75 MEUR (H1'25: 1.4 MEUR). According to the company, revenue from new customers announced in H1 should materialize in H2. In recent years, the company has announced several customer wins, but their conversion into significant recurring revenue seems to be taking a long time. The profit warning naturally has a negative impact on our estimates and investment view, which we will update in the near future.

Slow revenue recognition from customer contracts is slowing growth

Aiforia's January-June revenue of around 0.75 MEUR represents a decrease of approximately 46% compared to the comparison period. The outcome falls sharply short of our expectations, as we had estimated revenue of 2.3 MEUR for the beginning of the year, following a successful H2'25. According to the company, the weak performance was due to delays in ongoing customer contracts and the fact that revenue from new contracts signed during the early part of the year (such as the Paris and Spain hospital expansions) will only start to be recognized in the second half of the year. The company has consistently reported new customer accounts over the past couple of years, but the recurring revenue generated from them is still very modest and appears to be growing slowly. In Aiforia's business model, the value of contracts is recognized as revenue based on usage, which makes the growth rate highly sensitive to the schedules of customers' own processes. The order book of 3.5 MEUR at the end of H1 provides support for future revenue development. However, the order book is modest compared to a year ago (H1'25: 5.1 MEUR).

Funding is sufficient for next year even without the EIB loan

The company stated that the weak performance in the beginning of the year does not cause revisions to its previously issued mid-term targets. However, the sluggishness in H1 means clear downward pressure on our 2026 estimates, as our expected growth curve is once again pushed forward. Regarding funding, Aiforia recently raised 6.4 MEUR through a directed issue. We believe this funding is sufficient until H1'27. In addition, the company has a letter of intent for 20 MEUR in venture debt financing with the European Investment Bank. The slow progress of the company also increases uncertainty from a financing perspective.