Aktia Q1'26 preview: Return to earnings growth is on the horizon

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/22/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Aktia Bank will publish its Q1 interim report on Thursday, February 30. We expect the bank's business income and comparable operating profit to have decreased slightly from the comparison period. On earnings day, our attention will be particularly drawn to the outlook for new sales in asset management, with new international distribution channels.

Lending volume growth still appears sluggish

We expect Aktia's operating income to have decreased only very moderately from the comparison period. The bottom of net interest income on a quarterly basis is likely to be at hand, so the rise in interest rates should turn net interest income back to growth during the rest of the year.

According to statistics from the Bank of Finland, demand for housing loans has remained subdued, and we assume this has also affected Aktia. However, we expect better development in corporate loans, so overall, we estimate Aktia's loan portfolio to have grown slightly since the turn of the year.

We expect net commission income to have grown from the comparison period, supported by higher assets under management. However, our new sales expectations for asset management in Q1 are moderate, as we estimate that increased uncertainty has been reflected in the demand for asset management services.

We expect profitability to have declined slightly year-on-year

Aktia's comparable Q1 result is expected to decrease by approximately 10% from the comparison period, partly due to moderately increasing costs and slightly declining revenues. We expect credit losses to have remained slightly higher than usual in the first half of the year, at 2.8 MEUR. Although the economic outlook has remained cloudy, we believe Aktia's loan portfolio risk profile is very moderate.

We expect earnings per share (EPS) to be EUR 0.27, which corresponds to a decent return on equity of 12.3%.

Guidance anticipates stable earnings development in 2026

Aktia has guided that its comparable operating profit for 2026 will be approximately at the same level as in 2025 (106.0 MEUR). We expect the company to reiterate this guidance in conjunction with the Q1 report.

Our current forecasts expect earnings growth to begin in 2027, as rising interest rates start to support net interest income. Regarding volume development, the outlook is far from clear, as increased inflation expectations threaten to derail Finland's nascent economic recovery. This may also have negative effects on asset management sales, although in a good scenario, a higher interest rate level may also increase demand for fixed income products. Aktia's challenge in recent years has been institutional sales, and the company announced new international distribution partnerships as a solution. It would be important to get support for net subscriptions from these, as the ambitious growth targets for the strategy period require excellent success in new sales. We expect to hear more about this on the earnings release date.