Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/30/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Aktia's Q2 earnings clearly exceeded our expectations. This was driven by stronger-than-expected income development, while the report offered no surprises regarding costs. The company also slightly raised its earnings guidance for the current year, and overall, the general outlook after the report is positive. We will update our view on Aktia exceptionally next Tuesday.

Income growth was more robust than we anticipated

Aktia's net interest income turned slightly more strongly than we anticipated in Q2, confirming that the income item bottomed out in the first half of the year. However, there was still a year-on-year decrease of some 5%, as the decline in interest rates affected net interest income with a delay. Loan demand showed a mixed trend. On the one hand, the corporate loan book grew very strongly (+13% from the comparison period), but due to subdued household loan demand, the total loan book contracted slightly from the turn of the year. The development was thus broadly in line with public market data.

Commission income was roughly in line with our forecast. However, assets under management exceeded our forecast, reaching 18.1 BEUR. However, the underlying development was approximately in line with our expectations, as net subscriptions developed as anticipated, and growth came from changes in value, which are influenced by market developments. Demand was strongest in institutional sales, where both domestic and foreign net subscriptions grew significantly. Q2 was the fifth consecutive positive quarter for Aktia in terms of new sales, which, when viewed against the company's history, is a positive development and indicates that the direction in asset management is now correct.

Net income from life insurance was boosted by investment income, which was higher than we anticipated, and thus net income from life insurance significantly exceeded our forecast. Overall, Aktia's business income grew by 12% from the comparison period to 14.1 MEUR.

No surprises in cost level and credit losses

Aktia’s comparable operating expenses in Q2 were in line with our expectations, representing a ~3% increase from the comparison period. The cost level increased particularly due to higher personnel and IT costs. Credit losses in Q2 were more positive than we expected. The positive development was due to the implementation of a new ECL model, which was known and whose impact was well in line with our expectations. Thus, even adjusted for this, loan losses were slightly more moderate overall than we anticipated. In addition, the quality of the loan book strengthened, as the proportion of non-performing loans continued to decline as in previous quarters.

Aktia's reported earnings for the quarter were EUR 0.44, which significantly exceeded our forecast due to better-than-expected revenue development.

Guidance was raised in the Q2 report

Aktia updated its earnings guidance in the Q2 report and expects its comparable operating profit to be approximately at the same level or slightly higher than the previous year's 106 MEUR. The previous guidance indicated that comparable EBIT would be approximately at the same level. The underlying assumptions for the guidance remained almost unchanged, although the banking business's result is expected to decline less severely than before, according to our interpretation.

Aktia's capital adequacy decreased by just under one percentage point as updates to the bank's models increased risk-weighted assets. This was not surprising, as the bank had already communicated the upcoming change. Aktia's CET1 ratio was 12% at the end of Q2, meaning its capital adequacy has fallen below the company's targeted normal level (~4% above the regulatory requirement). However, the bank's risks are not elevated; rather, it is a matter of the company's own target level.