Aktia Q3'26 flash comment: Benefits of rising interest rates will only be seen in the coming quarters
Summary
- Aktia's Q3 earnings fell short of expectations, with both income and expenses underperforming, although asset management showed positive net subscriptions for the sixth consecutive quarter.
- Net interest income declined due to higher funding costs and timing factors, while the loan book decreased by around 1% from the previous quarter.
- Operational expenses exceeded expectations, partly due to restructuring costs, while credit losses were lower than anticipated, and earnings per share missed estimates due to lower income and higher expenses.
- Aktia maintained its earnings guidance for the current year, with solvency improving after regulatory updates, offsetting previous decreases due to additional credit risk model requirements.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/30/2026 at 9:39 am EET.
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Q3'26 | 2026e |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes |
| Net interest income | 34 | 31.9 | 33.3 | 33.2 | -4% | 132.4 |
| Net commission income | 31.2 | 31.1 | 32.7 | 33 | -5% | 130.9 |
| Net income from life insurance | 8.2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 6.3 | -27% | 30.8 |
| Total operating income | 73.5 | 70.4 | 74.1 | 72.8 | -5% | 296.8 |
| Total operating expenses | -44.4 | -50.9 | -45 | -45.3 | -13% | -184.3 |
| Credit losses | -3.8 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 41% | 0 |
| EBIT | 25.3 | 18 | 26.6 | 25.1 | -32% | 112.6 |
| Comparable EBIT | 27.4 | 22.5 | 26.6 | - | -15% | 114.2 |
| EPS | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.27 | -34% | 1.16 |
| EPS (adjusted) | 0.3 | 0.23 | 0.27 | -16% | 1.18 |
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)
Aktia's Q3 earnings were clearly below our expectations, as both income and expenses developed more weakly than anticipated during the quarter. However, asset management continued to show solid progress, with net subscriptions remaining positive for the sixth consecutive quarter.
Net interest income suffered from higher funding costs
Aktia's net interest income turned to a decline in Q3 from the previous quarter, contrary to our expectations, and contracted by around 6% year-on-year. Based on the figures, net interest income was primarily burdened by timing factors: the cost of market funding rose alongside the interest rate level, whereas loan interest rates increase returns only with a delay as reference rates are updated throughout the year. Interest rate hedges also have a negative short-term impact. While this dynamic is not surprising, the negative impact of rising funding costs and interest rate hedges was greater than we anticipated. Additionally, the loan book shrank more than we expected as the corporate loan portfolio saw a negative change for the first time in a long while. The loan book for private customers continued to decline in line with our expectations, so overall, Aktia's loan book decreased by around 1% from the previous quarter.
Net commission income decreased from the previous quarter and was below our estimate. According to the company, the decline was due to higher commission expenses resulting from changes in the card business, while income from funds increased. Growth in client assets under management was in line with our expectations, though net subscriptions were slightly higher than we anticipated. As it turned out, new asset management sales were the clear bright spot in an otherwise lackluster report. Private Banking clients accounted for the largest number of net subscriptions, but international sales remained vigorous as well, especially considering the increased uncertainty and sharp rise in market interest rates toward the end of the quarter. Q3 marked already the sixth consecutive positive quarter for Aktia in terms of new sales, indicating that the company is now on the right track in asset management.
Net income from life insurance also missed our estimate, so overall, Aktia's income was 5% below our estimate at 70.4 MEUR.
Growth in operational expenses weighed on earnings development
Aktia’s comparable operating expenses in Q3 were higher than we expected, which was due, above all, to growth in other expenses. According to the company, this was partly due to higher costs for purchased services and marketing. Additionally, the company recorded 4.4 MEUR of one-time expenses related to restructuring for the quarter. We could not find a reason for this in the report, at least not at first glance, but we estimate that this was related to the discontinuation of the Group Business Support function, which was previously operating.
Credit losses, on the other hand, were more moderate than we expected (1.5 MEUR vs. 2.5 MEUR forecast). No material change was observed in the quality of the loan portfolio.
Aktia's reported comparable earnings per share for the quarter were EUR 0.23, which missed our estimate (EUR 0.27) due to lower income and higher operating expenses. Reported earnings fell short of our estimate even more due to one-off costs booked for the quarter.
Earnings guidance remained unchanged
Aktia reiterated its earnings guidance for the current year and expects its comparable EBIT to be approximately at the same level or slightly higher than the previous year's 106 MEUR. We had considered the possibility that Aktia might revise its guidance upward, at least nominally, before the end of the year. However, given Q3's somewhat lackluster results, this now seems unlikely.
Aktia's solvency, and consequently its profit distribution capacity, increased after the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority updated its regulations and guidelines on risk-weighted assets (CET1 ratio 12.6% vs. minimum requirement of 8.8%). This largely offset the solvency decrease seen in Q2, resulting from the Financial Supervisory Authority's additional requirements for the bank's internal credit risk models.
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