Aktia Q4'25 flash comment: Write-downs spoiled an otherwise acceptable result

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/5/2026 at 9:32 am EET.

Aktia's comparable result was roughly in line with our expectations, but significant write-downs of goodwill and other intangible assets from Taaleri Wealth Management pushed the reported result into the red. The loan portfolio grew slightly due to strong demand for corporate loans, and asset management sales also developed positively. The current year's earnings guidance offered no surprises either, as Aktia expects its earnings to remain roughly flat.

Income developed slightly better than expected

Aktia's operating income in Q4 was slightly higher than our expectations due to higher net interest income. Net commission income and Other income, on the other hand, were well in line with our expectations.

In Asset Management, AUM developed well and the fee level remained stable. Gross AUM grew by some 1.8% from the previous quarter to 16.6 BEUR, thanks to both positive net subscriptions and value changes. Compared to peers that have already reported their results, this figure is not high, but considering Aktia's weak new sales in recent years, the direction is still correct. The majority of new sales came from international institutional clients, while net subscriptions from Private Banking clients turned negative.

The loan portfolio also grew slightly, with growth coming from corporate customers, as we expected. Thus, the development of Aktia's credit demand was in line with published market data, which showed that household credit demand remained subdued. On the other hand, the volume of new loans granted by Aktia was higher than in the corresponding period of the previous two years, so there are initial signs of a pick-up in mortgage demand.

Overall, Aktia's operating income decreased by 4% from the comparison period to 75.6 MEUR, as lower market interest rates weighed on net interest income.

Write-downs once again ruined Q4's reported result

Aktia's comparable operating expenses in Q4 were in line with our expectations, i.e., roughly at the level of the comparison period However, one-off costs related to the restructuring were higher than expected (3.9 MEUR).

Credit losses, on the other hand, significantly exceeded our forecast (5.9 MEUR vs. 3.1 MEUR forecast). According to the company, credit losses mainly stemmed from a single debtor. However, there was no longer any deterioration in the quality of the credit portfolio, and the proportion of non-performing loans began to decline.

In addition, Aktia announced that it would write down intangible assets from the Taaleri acquisition totaling 70 MEUR, which significantly weighed down the reported Q4 result into negative territory. This has no material impact, as intangible assets have already been deducted from own funds in the regulatory capital adequacy calculation. The weak performance after the acquisition is also quite well known, although we had not expected such significant write-downs from it.

Comparable EPS was EUR 0.25 for the quarter, only slightly below our forecast (EUR 0.27) due to higher-than-expected loan losses. However, reported EPS turned clearly negative due to the write-downs. Aktia proposed a dividend of EUR 0.80 per share for the past financial year, which was slightly below our estimate of EUR 0.83.

The earnings guidance offered no surprises

Based on the current year's earnings guidance, Aktia expects its comparable operating profit to be around at the same level as in 2025. The outlook did not offer any surprises, as our current earnings forecast anticipates a very moderate decline in earnings. The underlying assumptions of the guidance expect asset management commission income to increase slightly and credit losses to decrease, but the decline in net interest income and the increase in operating expenses are estimated to negate these positive effects. Thus, there was nothing surprising in the assumptions underlying the guidance either.