Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/10/2026 at 08:32 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 5 estimates)

Alma Media will publish its Q2'26 report on Wednesday at around 8:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue and EBIT to have grown year-on-year, even though the market situation has remained relatively gloomy. Our 2026 estimates anticipate moderate revenue growth and significant earnings growth (10-12%), so we expect the company to reiterate its guidance.

We expect growth to have continued in two segments

Despite the positive economic development in Finland, we believe that the development of Alma Media's key business drivers has not significantly improved, as investments in consumer durables have remained gloomy. The advertising market has also been subdued in Q2, although the latest figures showed improvement. However, we expect Alma Media's revenue to have grown by 4% in Q2 to 87 MEUR. In our estimates, the Group's revenue growth is particularly driven by the Marketplaces segment (+8%), which receives support from the Effortia acquisition in addition to organic growth. In line with the invoicing trend and the slightly upward trajectory of recruitment activity in Eastern Europe, we estimate Career to have grown by 4% from the comparison period. Despite the growth in digital revenue, we estimate News Media's revenue to have decreased by 1%, reflecting the continued rapid decline in print media revenue.

We expect profitability improvements to have continued

We expect Alma Media's Q2 adjusted EBIT to have risen to 26.5 MEUR. Thus, we expect adjusted EBIT margin to increase from a relatively good comparison level to 26% (Q2'25): 25.2%). We expect relative profitability to have improved in all segments, reflecting top-line growth in Marketplaces and Career, and a change in revenue structure in News Media. We also believe the company's continuous efficiency measures have improved profitability. Reflecting this increase in the operating result, our adjusted earnings per share estimate is slightly above the comparison period, even though we expect income statement taxes to be proportionally higher, reflecting a normalizing tax rate.

We expect earnings to grow this year

Alma Media's guidance for 2026 is that revenue remains at the 2025 level and the adjusted EBIT grows. Ahead of the Q2 report, our forecast for the current year's revenue is 341 MEUR and 90.3 MEUR for adjusted EBIT. The corresponding consensus estimates are 339 MEUR in revenue and 91.7 MEUR in adjusted EBIT. Thus, we expect revenue growth of 4% and adjusted EBIT growth of around 10-12%. We believe these estimates are in line with the company's verbal guidance, although we do not know the thresholds behind the verbal guidance.