Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 09:06 am EET

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 4 analysts (consensus)

Anora will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 30. We expect the company's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to have remained practically at the level of the comparison period. We expect Anora to reiterate its full-year earnings guidance, as it is well positioned to reach the guidance range. In the report, we will pay particular attention to the progress of efficiency measures and comments on the market outlook on the threshold of the important end-of-year season. We fine-tuned our forecasts in connection with this report, but the changes were minor overall. They are compiled in the table below.

Revenue is expected to stabilize at the level of the comparison period

We expect Anora's Q3 revenue to have settled at 155 MEUR (Q3'25: 157 MEUR). Alcohol market volumes have been on a structural decline in the Nordic countries, creating a continuous headwind for the company's sales. The volume decline in the monopoly markets (Finland, Sweden, Norway) continued in Q3 largely in line with the early part of the year (2-3% decline). By segment, we expect the decline in the Wine segment to continue due to the subdued Norwegian wine market and the negative impacts of expired partner and bottling contracts. We expect Spirits segment revenue to have remained roughly at the level of the comparison period, and Industrial segment revenue to have increased.

Efficiency measures support profitability

We expect Anora's adjusted EBITDA in Q3 to settle at 18.5 MEUR (Q3'25: 18.0 MEUR). The company's profitability is supported in particular by efficiency measures under the Fit, Fix, Focus program and disciplined revenue and portfolio management, which we believe will support the gross margin similarly to the beginning of the year. On the other hand, following the Industrial segment's strong Q2 result, we do not expect as significant an earnings improvement from the segment due to tougher comparison figures in the rest of the year. Cost inflation, such as rising packaging and logistics costs, continues to cause some pressure, but the impact of these is unlikely to be significantly visible yet in Q3.

Reiterating guidance is likely

Anora's guidance for 2026 comparable EBITDA is 74-79 MEUR (2025: 71 MEUR). After the first half of the year, the company's earnings were about 3 MEUR higher year on year, meaning the lower end of the guidance is achievable even if the second-half earnings remain at the level of the comparison period. Our full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast is currently ~75 MEUR, which is within the guidance range. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance in connection with the Q3 results. Q4 is seasonally the most important earnings quarter for the company, accounting for over 40% of the full-year earnings. Thus, demand during the year-end season will also have a substantial impact on full-year earnings. We believe that cost inflation will somewhat weigh on the Q4 earnings outlook, as there is no opportunity for price increases until next year.

Source: Inderes