Anora Q1'25 flash comment: Easter-despressed quarter close to our expectations

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 05/07/2025 at 08:58 am EEST

Anora reported its Q1 results this morning. The revenue and earnings of the seasonally quiet quarter decreased slightly year-on-year, mainly due to the timing of Easter. Full-year guidance was repeated as expected. The deviation from our forecasts is small, and we do not initially see a need for material estimate changes.

Revenue declined slightly less than expected

Anora’s Q1 revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, slightly less than we expected. Revenue decreased in all segments Revenue from beverage sales (Wine and Spirits segments) was negatively impacted by the timing of Easter in Q2, but their development was still slightly better than we expected. The company commented that its market share has improved in Sweden, which is a positive sign, as Anora has lost significant share there in recent years. The revenue of the low-margin Industrial segment was weaker than we expected.

Earnings fell slightly short of our expectations and the comprison period

Anora's adjusted EBITDA was slightly below the comparison period and our forecast. Lower revenue naturally weakened earnings. In addition, marketing investments in the Wine segment and the timing of group expenses negatively impacted earnings. Gross margins in the beverage segments were in line with our forecast. The Spirits segment exceeded our expectations, while other segments fell slightly short of our forecasts. Q1 is seasonally Anora's weakest quarter, and, therefore, we do not consider the relatively small earnings deviation in absolute terms particularly significant going forward. The reported figures included a small positive non-recurring item. Due to seasonally weak cash flow, Anora's net debt/adjusted EBITDA rose clearly from the turn of the year to 3.3x, which is quite a high level and higher than Anora's target level (below 2.5x).

Guidance reiterated

As expected, Anora reiterated its full-year guidance and expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 70-75 MEUR. Our forecast before the Q1 report was 70 MEUR, and initially we see no significant need to change it. The guidance assumes that market volumes will remain roughly at last year's level and Anora's volumes will improve. At least based on the development at the beginning of the year, the assumption seems rather optimistic. Kirsi Puntila, who started as CEO a couple of months ago, did not provide any new comments in the report, e.g., regarding strategy.