Anora Q3'25 flash comment: Better than expected earnings, guidance also indicates improvement in Q4

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/31/2025 at 09:04 am EET

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Anora’s revenue decreased and fell short of our expectations, but earnings grew more than we expected. The company reiterated its full-year guidance, i.e. adj. EBITDA of 70-75 MEUR, which requires an earnings improvement in Q4. Our estimates are subject to a slight upward pressure due to the Q3 result that exceeds our expectations. 

Revenue decreased, especially in the beverage segments

Anora’s revenue decreased by 4% in Q3, while we expected the same level as in the comparison period. All three segments declined, and revenue was also slightly weaker than expected in all segments. In the Wine segment, the decrease was 5%, which the company said was mainly due to the expected decrease in filling services. In Sweden, the positive market share development for wines continued. In the Spirits segment, on the other hand, the company's market shares decreased in the main markets of Finland and Norway. The Industrial segment's revenue was almost at the level of the comparison period and almost in line with our forecast. 

Earnings improved more than we expected

Despite weaker-than-expected revenue development, Anora improved its adj. EBITDA to 18 MEUR, while we expected 16.5 MEUR.
 However, the beverage segments' earnings were in line with our estimates, and the positive surprise came from the Industrial segment. However, in the big picture, this is less relevant, and its potential is limited. The Wine segment's earnings improved from a weak comparison period, and Spirits remained at the comparison period's level despite a decrease in revenue in both, indicating good cost management. 

Guidance remained unchanged, but there is still a risk

Anora reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 70-75 MEUR, while it was 69 MEUR in the comparison period. For the first nine months, the company is exactly at the comparison period's level of 40 MEUR. Therefore, the guidance suggests that Q4 earnings will be 30-35 MEUR, while our forecast before the Q3 report was on par with the comparison period at 29 MEUR. Thus, we still see downside risk in the guidance, but with a slightly better-than-expected Q3, the company has a chance to achieve it. The guidance assumes that market volumes will remain roughly at last year's level, which implies a slight improvement during the rest of the year. The company has also launched new cost savings, which we believe will not be visible until next year.