Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/4/2026 at 7:54 am EEST.

Apetit announced on Thursday that it had frozen a record-high pea harvest in Finland. This, combined with the otherwise favorable outlook for the harvest in Finland, supports our projection of a recovery in profitability for Food Solutions in Finland. However, the weak pea harvest in Sweden and the challenging market situation in Oilseed Products will keep the overall result below peak levels of recent years.

Demand for peas is currently strong in the export market

Apetit’s record-breaking pea harvest in Finland came at just the right time, as harvests elsewhere in Europe have been poor due to drought, which may cause export prices to rise to exceptionally attractive levels. The outlook for the root vegetable harvest is also fairly good, though it is, of course, influenced by factors such as rainfall conditions at harvest time. We estimate that Food Solutions' EBIT in Finland could be around 5 MEUR in H2'26, which would correspond to the peak level of H2'24 (6 MEUR), taking into account the estimated 1 MEUR in one-off costs resulting from the closure of the Pudasjärvi pizza factory, timed for the end of the year. Apetit has been expanding its pea cultivation area with a long-term perspective. The cultivation area has doubled in just under a decade. However, due to weather conditions, the 2025 crop was below average, which has contributed to the earnings performance over the past 12 months.

Overall result still under pressure

However, Food Solutions' strong performance in Finland will not be enough to raise the group's overall earnings to 2024 levels, due to weaker momentum in the Swedish pea business and Oilseed Products. The Swedish pea business, acquired at the end of 2025, has been operating at a loss for a long time, and despite commercial successes, a turnaround in earnings will be delayed because the pea harvest in the summer of 2026 was poor. Oilseed Products, on the other hand, is suffering from weak crushing margins reflected in market prices, though we anticipate earnings will recover in H2 compared to the weak start of the year. Crushing margins are weighed down by the low price of feed, affecting the revenue generated from rapeseed expeller.

Expectations of a comprehensive turnaround in earnings loaded onto the stock

Our EBIT forecast for the full year 2026 is -1.5 MEUR, which is affected by the weak H1 performance in Oilseed Products, losses in Sweden, and the closure costs of the pizza factory (2.3 MEUR). For 2027, we forecast an EBIT of 5 MEUR, which would require earnings of 7 MEUR from Food Solutions Finland (2024 peak year: 8 MEUR), halving the operating loss of the Swedish pea business to -1.6 MEUR, and recovering the earnings level in Oilseed Products to approximately the 2019–25 average (2.7 MEUR). Even then, we believe the share would be expensive (EV/EBIT 18x), and we think the share price has already factored in the expectation of an even stronger earnings turnaround.