ASML's orders developed strongly in Q4 as AI investments continued

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/29/2026 at 7:36 pm EET.

ASML, which has a virtual monopoly on EUV lithography machines, reported its Q4 results on Wednesday, exceeding analyst expectations considerably in terms of orders received. As expected, the company's outlook predicts continued growth this year, driven by AI investments, though the outlook appears slightly better than previous analyst expectations. Revenue growth is particularly driven by the increasing demand for EUV systems, which simultaneously creates a rapidly growing market for Canatu's carbon nanotube pellicles in the coming years.

Strong AI boom reflected in growth of orders received

ASML's Q4 revenue grew 5% to 9.7 BEUR, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. For all of 2025, revenue was 32.7 BEUR (+16%). Adjusted EBIT for Q4 was 3.4 BEUR, corresponding to a margin of 35%.

Orders received during the quarter (13.2 BEUR) were at a very strong level, clearly exceeding consensus expectations (6.85 BEUR). Of the orders, 7.4 BEUR were for EUV systems, with AI investments being a key driver of demand. EUV systems are necessary for manufacturing advanced logic and memory chips.

Outlook for 2026 predicts growth as expected

ASML's guidance for this year is revenue of 34-39 BEUR and a gross margin of 51-53%. The midpoint of this guidance (36.5 BEUR) thus exceeds analysts' current consensus estimate (35.3 BEUR). According to ASML's comments, the mid-term demand outlook among its customer base has become more positive in recent months. This is related to the expectation that AI investments will remain high, as reflected in chip manufacturers' (e.g., TSMC) capacity expansion plans. Chip manufacturers' investments, in turn, are reflected in the growing demand for ASML's EUV systems.

As previously communicated, ASML expects China's revenue to decrease this year, as business in this region has been exceptionally strong in 2024-2025. Due to the geopolitical situation, ASML is not supplying the most advanced EUV equipment to China, but rather older DUV technology.  

New system deliveries from ASML create growth market for Canatu in the coming years

ASML's latest EUV systems, with power exceeding 500 watts, are particularly interesting from Canatu's perspective. The use of these devices requires EUV pellicle membranes that protect the photomask in the production process, which can be made from Canatu's CNT. The characteristics of CNTs produced using Canatu’s patented method seem to be better suited for this purpose than competitors' products, which gives the company an attractive starting point to pursue a significant position in this market. In systems above 500 watts, the properties of Canatu's carbon nanotube pellicle membranes are clearly superior to traditional composite membranes, which can no longer properly withstand higher thermal loads and mechanical stress. We currently expect demand for EUV pellicles to grow strongly starting in 2027, which should significantly impact Canatu's revenue.